Analysis: Why JD Vance might not carry Trump’s MAGA torch into the future

John T. Bennett | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — It’s too soon to brand Sen. JD Vance as the surefire heir to Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” throne.

At least that was the consensus of some Republican delegates and lawmakers interviewed as they milled about the Fiserv Forum or the vast space outside last week in Milwaukee, sipping local brews and congregating between sessions of their national political convention.

Many of those wearing Trump or MAGA gear enthusiastically said his movement would survive beyond the 78-year-old Republican nominee’s political career — and life. In fact, many said there essentially is no difference between Trump and the party.

What there was disagreement on was any notion Vance, a 39-year-old self-described “hillbilly” with populist conservative views tapped to be Trump’s running mate, would inevitably be the one to carry the MAGA torch into the future.

Dan Musholt, a delegate from Canton, Missouri, described Vance as “just one of many because, look, we’ve got a really deep bench.”

“I think Donald Trump picked Vance to complement himself and his strengths on the ticket,” Musholt said on July 17, the day after several potential future presidential candidates addressed the Republican convention. “But there are others that I really, really like. You’ve got Byron Donalds, Tim Scott also is someone I like. Marco Rubio, I think, let everyone know last night he’s interested in the future.” (He was referring to the Florida House member, South Carolina senator and Florida senator.)

Like others interviewed on the topic, Musholt mused that Trump could opt to hand the torch to a family member. “I could easily see Lara Trump being the future,” he said of the Republican National Committee co-chair and former president’s daughter-in-law, less than 24 hours after she received solid applause from delegates with the keynote prime-time address on July 16. “She’s dynamic, she’s got his (Trump’s) ear, and she can reach the people.”

Rochelle Brooks, a Texas delegate wearing a bright-red shirt and white cowboy hat, was enjoying a Lake Michigan breeze outside the Fiserv Forum as she offered her assessment of the party’s future.

“I think it depends on how Vance performs as vice president,” she said. “I think it’s up to Vance if he’s the future of the party. But he’s got to be loyal to Donald Trump. And I hope Trump learned from the first time when he picked Mike Pence, who became a traitor on Jan. 6 — I’m so tired of people stabbing him (Trump) in the back.”

The then-vice president refused to go along with Trump’s wishes that he prevent Congress from counting states’ Electoral College votes on Jan. 6, 2021. As a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol that day, some chanted “hang Mike Pence” and a gallows was outside. Pence launched a bid last year to challenge Trump for the nomination, but dropped out in October.

Ian Bergstrom, a delegate from Nassau County, New York, said he expects Vance “will have a lot of competition going forward.”

“There are a lot of lawmakers and younger people making moves already,” he said from behind a pair of reflective aviator sunglasses. Asked if any of those up-and-coming Republicans stood out to him, Bergstrom replied after a moment of contemplation: “Byron Donalds is a very impressive person. Hopefully he is appointed to Trump’s Cabinet. That could really give him momentum for the future.”

On the evening of July 18, Donalds also was sporting aviators as he held court with reporters and delegates outside the arena a few hours before Trump accepted the party’s nomination. He smiled and slowly shook his head when asked by CQ-Roll Call about delegates naming him as a potential heir to Trump’s movement.

“I mean, listen, JD is the … vice presidential nominee. So our No. 1 job is electing Donald Trump,” Donalds said. “I mean, you’re asking about a question four years from now, really more like four years and four months from now. I have no idea. What I do know about politics is that things are changing and moving all the time.”

Notably, however, he did not rule out a White House bid of his own in 2028: “What’s gonna happen in politics in the future? We’ll see.” Donalds is also seen as a potential candidate for governor in Florida to succeed Ron DeSantis, another Trump rival in the primaries who, unlike Pence, got a speaking role at the convention.

Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., also was among those who did not automatically assume Vance would be the person to carry the MAGA mantle post-Trump.

“I think the future of the party, whether it’s Donald Trump Jr. or Eric Trump or Lara Trump or JD Vance, or people in the House or people in the Senate, is this: Make America great. America first. Make America secure. Make America safe. Make America strong,” Mast said, reciting the themes of the four nights of the Republican convention.

“That is the future of the party. And for individuals that will not represent those things in their respective states, I don’t think they’ll make it through GOP primaries, even beyond Trump,” Mast added. “He’s the America-first president. And his principles should guide us.”

Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., did not even mention Vance’s name when asked on July 18 if the Ohio senator is the party’s future.

“I think what you’re seeing, not just tonight, but every night, is the future of the party. The party is changing before our eyes. It’s the party of the people. And you’ve seen people from all walks of life … on that stage this week,” she said. “We’re more accepting of everybody, more so than ever — and that’s because of Donald Trump’s leadership.”

Those assessments came a few days before a NPR/PBS/Marist College poll was conducted on July 22 that found 41% of registered voters nationally had never heard of Vance.

That survey suggested the Trump campaign has work to do selling him to voters, with 28% reporting a favorable view of the “Hillbilly Elegy” author and 31% saying they had a negative view. Among Republicans, 57% said they had a favorable view of the senator, while 32% were unsure or had never heard of him. Eleven percent of GOP voters said they had an unfavorable view of Vance.

Vance was welcomed warmly during his July 17 vice presidential nomination acceptance speech. But he did not bring down the house at any point and got mostly tepid applause. An audience Monday in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio, offered the same as he walked through his dramatic life story. He also contradicted himself in what was his solo campaign trail debut as the party’s vice presidential nominee.

At one point Monday afternoon, he claimed his family found 18 “loaded” firearms in the home of his late grandmother — who he calls “Mamaw” — after she died. A few minutes later, he proudly declared, “Mamaw didn’t worry about safety in Middletown,” and allowed him to ride his bicycle wherever he wished.

What’s more, an audience at an RNC event booed when his wife, Usha, claimed her husband had become a vegetarian when they met. But on Monday, a reporter traveling with him tweeted a picture of Vance’s lunch aboard his private plane, dubbed “Trump Force Two,” which included deep-fried chicken tenders. At a rally that evening in Radford, Virginia, he again received friendly but light applause — and when he stumbled during his remarks, some in the audience booed.

There was no booing on July 16 while former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy addressed the convention. “Vivek has a lot of charisma, and his ideas, I think, are probably the most like Trump’s,” said Musholt, the Missouri delegate. “I think Vivek’s going to have something to say about the future for sure.”

Ramaswamy told the convention that “we deserve a better class of politician, one who actually tells us the truth — even if it comes with some mean tweets from time to time,” he said. “And our message to Gen Z is this: You’re going to be the generation that actually saves this country. You want to be a rebel? You want to be a hippie? You want to stick it to the man?

“Show up on your college campus and try calling yourself a conservative. Say you want to get married, have kids, teach them to believe in God and pledge allegiance to their country,” he added. “Because you know what? Fear has been infectious in this country, but courage can be contagious, too. That, too, is what it means to be an American.”

The lines were met with boisterous applause as delegates stood as one, roaring their collective approval.

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