The 49ers have been looking for a resolution to the Brandon Aiyuk contract standoff for months.
They seem to have finally found one.
Multiple reports this past weekend and Monday claimed that the 49ers have a newfound willingness to trade the disgruntled All-Pro receiver.
This is not to say that an Aiyuk trade is either imminent or certain.
Nor is it to say that it is the ideal course of action for the 49ers is to sign the receiver to a new, long-term deal at roughly $27 million per season.
But the days of doing the ideal thing have passed.
Seeing as Aiyuk has shown no interest in signing anything that pays him less than $30 million a season (the gap between his demands and the Niners’ offer is roughly $4 million a season — and that’s to say nothing of the guarantees in the deal), the 49ers need to make a move.
A trade — if executed correctly — could check all of the boxes for San Francisco, helping in the present and the future, just as a market-rate deal for Aiyuk would.
Such a deal would be straightforward — perhaps the only part of this Aiyuk saga that can make such a claim:
Aiyuk for an established NFL receiver and 2025 second-round draft pick.
An actual trade might have a few more bells and whistles, but that’s the nuts and bolts of it.
And I like the idea of trading for Cleveland Amari’s Cooper.
Seeing as the Browns just restructured Cooper’s deal but didn’t extend it, we have a pretty good idea of how Cleveland feels about the 30-year-old wide receiver. They like him… for now.
The 49ers should like Cooper, for now, too.
When you re-sign a 26-year-old All-Pro like Aiyuk, you are doing so because he is productive today and you expect him to be productive in the years to come.
Neither the Browns nor the 49ers can make that same bet on Cooper.
But the Super Bowl window for the 49ers is, effectively, one season — 2024. Next year Brock Purdy is due a massive new contract, possibly hitting $60 million per season, and the 49ers will have to fundamentally change how the team pays the other 52 players on the active roster.
By trading Aiyuk for Cooper, the Niners would receive a player who is stunningly similar to Aiyuk in production going into the 2024 season.
Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards per catch last season, combining a deep average target with a strong after-the-catch average.
Cooper averaged 17.4 yards per catch last season, skimping a bit on the yards after the catch, but catching the ball further down the field, on average.
The 17.9 and 17.4 rates were second and third in the NFL last year of all receivers with 50-plus receptions. (Aiyuk caught 75 passes in 16 games, Cooper 72 in 15.)
Cooper was also doing it in a Shanahan-style offense (Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is a Shanahan disciple) with a worse quarterback play (the Browns played five different quarterbacks last season).
These are two shockingly comparable players.
And yes, Aiyuk is younger — Cooper has already put in 10 years in the league — but both Cooper and Aiyuk are in the final years of their contracts. Only one, Cooper, seems to be at peace with that fact.
Change is tough, but if the Niners truly believe that they will be unable to sign Aiyuk to an extension before this season, trading him for Cooper doesn’t change much when it comes to the team’s Super Bowl hopes. I’d imagine it wouldn’t change the team’s win total prop bet (11.5), either.
Unlike a trade for strictly draft picks, the Niners wouldn’t hurt their 2024 Super Bowl chances with this deal.
And with the suggested deal, the Niners wouldn’t be taking a hit for the future, either.
Remember, the Niners prepped themselves for such a scenario by taking Ricky Pearsall, a wide receiver, with their first-round pick this past April. They have a replacement in-house. And while he might not be ready to be the team’s starting X receiver in 2024, he has looked outstanding in training camp and doesn’t seem far off from being an every-down, impact type of player.
Another second-round pick would give the Niners another young, cheap player. The Niners are going to need as many of those as they can get when Purdy is paid.
And by moving off of Aiyuk, the Niners — who are, conservatively, already $20 million over the salary cap for next season — stand a chance of keeping some of their other key players who were otherwise destined for the chopping block after a new Aiyuk contract.
If they like Cooper, they can re-sign him. He’ll be cheaper than Aiyuk because of his age. Deebo Samuel, who looked certain to be a cap casualty in 2025, might be able to stick around for another season, finishing his contract.
The team’s top two cornerbacks, Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, are entering the final years of their contracts in 2024. Next offseason, I’d expect the duo to, combined, cost as much as one Aiyuk. (Ward, as an elite No. 1 corner, should command roughly $18 million annually and Lenoir, who is poised for a big season, could check in at roughly $11 million.)
There’s some serious flexibility for the 49ers — who are paying top dollar to their No. 1 running back, middle linebacker, defensive end, tight end, Deebo Samuel, and soon, their quarterback and left tackle — without Aiyuk.
There’s a reason the team hasn’t budged on its offer to the wide receiver.
But to this point, the Niners have viewed a trade as sacrificing the present for the sake of the future.
That’s not the case with a Cooper-and-pick trade, making it the only reasonable trade option for San Francisco at this juncture.
