As always, my Associated Press preseason ballot is a projection of the postseason hierarchy. Granted, that task was exponentially more difficult in 2024 resulting from two changes that make the upcoming season the most interesting in eons: The existence of mega-conferences (from realignment), and the expansion of the College Football Playoff.
Nevertheless, I’m quite confident the AP’s end-of-season poll will look exactly like the ballot below.
Thank me later.
(Note: Once the AP preseason poll is released Monday morning, I will update the ballot below with each team’s ranking for comparative purposes.)
Here we go …
Also considered (alphabetically): Air Force, N.C. State, Rutgers, SMU, Tennessee, USC, UTSA, Virginia Tech and West Virginia
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes hit the coveted double, retaining a plethora of their best players and backfilling with a stellar class of freshmen and transfers, including quarterback Will Howard (from Kansas State) and safety Caleb Downs (Alabama). Not to be overlooked: They return four starters on the offensive line and the entire defensive front. It’s a critical year for coach Ryan Day, and he has no excuses. The Buckeyes are loaded. Toughest games: at Oregon, at Penn State, vs. Michigan
2. Georgia: Much like Ohio State, the Bulldogs are stacked with returning starters on the lines of scrimmage. Add returning quarterback Carson Beck and Malaki Starks, arguably the best safety in the land, and Georgia is perfectly positioned to reclaim the SEC crown. Reaching the CFP is a given. Anything short of a semifinal appearance would be a major disappointment in Athens. Toughest games: vs Clemson (in Atlanta), at Alabama, at Texas
3. Texas: The Longhorns picked a very good year — their inaugural season in the SEC — to trot out their best roster in ages, with 15 returning starters from a 12-win team. Perhaps the best offensive line in the country will protect quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, although the season-ending knee injury to tailback CJ Baxter is a major blow. Toughest games: at Michigan, vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas), vs. Georgia
4. Oregon: The Ducks are set for success in the Big Ten, with 17 returning starters and the best recruiting class in school history fueling a run at the Big Ten title and, perhaps, a coveted national title for 86-year-old benefactor Phil Knight. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel (from Oklahoma) has a first-rate collection of receivers and a veteran line to aid in the playoff drive. Toughest games: vs. Ohio State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin
5. Utah: In a Big 12 seemingly devoid of national championship frontrunners, the Utes are the team to beat — assuming their roster doesn’t turn into a M*A*S*H unit once again. Quarterback Cam Rising, whose career began in the Big 12 in 2018 (with Texas), has all the ingredients in place to lead Utah to its first playoff appearance. As always, the lines of scrimmage in Salt Lake City are big, mean and relentless. Toughest games: at Oklahoma State, vs. Arizona, vs. Iowa State
6. Florida State: Many of the players who experienced the CFP snub have left the program, forcing coach Mike Norvell to reconfigure his depth chart. The list of impact newcomers starts with quarterback DJ Uiagalalei, from Clemson by way of Oregon State, and includes receiver Malik Benson (from Alabama). We expect FSU’s defense to lead the way early as the offense finds its form. Toughest games: vs. Clemson, at Miami, at Notre Dame
7. Notre Dame: The trajectory of coach Marcus Freeman’s third season will be established early as the Irish open with a showdown at Texas A&M. From there, it’s one winnable game after another for a team that returns 15 starters and has an A-level transfer quarterback, Riley Leonard (from Duke). Notre Dame’s path into the CFP is fairly straightforward: Win 10, and an at-large bid should follow. Toughest games: at Texas A&M, vs. Florida State, at USC
8. Alabama: The first season since 2006 without Nick Saban in charge is also the first time in years Alabama isn’t a national title frontrunner. New coach Karen DeBoer has a veteran quarterback in Jalen Milroe but faces a rugged schedule that could result in — gasp! — two or three losses. DeBoer’s management of expectations and standards for accountability inside the locker room will be critical. Toughest games: vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU
9. Oklahoma State: A lineup that features 19 returning starters gives OSU a better chance than other Big 12 legacy schools to prevent a newcomer (Utah) from winning the conference. The Cowboys possess a dependable quarterback in Alan Bowman, the nation’s best tailback in Ollie Gordon and a star linebacker in Nick Martin. Whether that’s enough to fend off Utah remains to be seen. Toughest games: vs. Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU
10. Mississippi: The self-professed “Portal King” is more like the Ruler of Returnees this season. Coach Lane Kiffin’s depth chart features 20 returning starters, including quarterback Jaxson Dart, as the Rebels attempt to break through in the SEC. Finishing ahead of Alabama would be a victory, but the Rebels have their sights (justifiably) set on the CFP. Toughest games: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia
11. Clemson: From a coach who loves the portal, we move to a coach who hates the portal. This is a critical year for Dabo Swinney, whose program was a mere 4-4 in the ACC last season and is in jeopardy of losing elite status. Are there enough playmakers to bring out the best in quarterback Cade Klubnik? We’ll know early on, courtesy of the Week 1 showdown with Georgia. Toughest games: vs. Georgia (in Atlanta), at Florida State, at Virginia Tech
12. Miami: Mario Cristobal’s third season with his alma mater will shape the future of the program — and his job security. The Hurricanes have more than enough talent to contend in the ACC, but will performance match the personnel? (That hasn’t always been the case with Cristobal’s teams.) Much depends on transfer quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) avoiding multi-week downturns in his efficiency. But the Canes should benefit from a soft schedule. Toughest games: at Florida, at Louisville, vs. Virginia Tech
13. Penn State: We considered slotting the Nittany Lions even lower — such is the Hotline’s skepticism that James Franklin and Co. can hold their own in the expanded Big Ten. The defensive line is loaded, and the back seven looks solid. But will the Nittany Lions score consistently in the handful of matchups that matter most? They don’t play Michigan or Oregon, but the path is hardly easy. Toughest games: at West Virginia, vs. Ohio State, at USC
14. Nebraska: Our No. 1 sleeper pick for the 2024 season resides in Lincoln and possesses a head coach (Matt Rhule) whose previous college teams (Temple and Baylor) improved significantly in his second season. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola will undoubtedly struggle, especially early, but a veteran line and stout defense should offer enough support to keep the Cornhuskers on track for a breakthrough season. Toughest games: at Ohio State, at USC, at Iowa
15. Missouri: The No. 15 team in the country is merely the fifth-best team in the SEC. Or could the Tigers, who won 11 games last season and return quarterback Brady Cook, climb onto the top tier of the nation’s toughest conference? The level of success depends on the speed with which the retooled defense coalesces. Fortunately for coach Eli Drinkwitz, the September schedule is pillowy soft. Toughest games: at Texas A&M, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma
16. Michigan: Admittedly, we are skeptical about the Wolverines — skeptical they can replace 13 NFL Draft picks without substantial regression, skeptical coach Sherrone Moore can smoothly navigate the inevitable setbacks and, above all, skeptical that a punishing schedule won’t exact pounds of flesh and leave the Wolverines on the outside of the CFP. Toughest games: vs. Texas, vs. Oregon, at Ohio State
17. Kansas State: The gap between KSU and the top two teams in the Big 12 (Utah and Oklahoma State) is far smaller than their placement in our rankings would suggest. In fact, the Wildcats could very well win the Big 12 if sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson matures quickly and the veteran defense is as stout as we expect. Toughest games: vs. Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, at Iowa State
18. LSU: The Tigers won 10 games last year because quarterback Jayden Daniels was sensational more often than not. Without Daniels, the pressure shifts onto a defense that was torched repeatedly in 2023 and a quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier, who has plenty to prove. One saving grace in Baton Rouge: The offensive line features two elite tackles in Will Campbell and Emory Jones. Toughest games: vs. USC (in Las Vegas), vs. Alabama, vs. Oklahoma
19. Arizona: The Wildcats changed conferences and coaches but retained one of the nation’s top playmaking tandems in quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. The offensive line and secondary should be among the best in the Big 12, as well. But how will new coach Brent Brennan manage expectations for a program unfamiliar with accolades and expectations. Toughest games: at Kansas State, at Utah, vs. West Virginia
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20. Iowa: The offense cannot be worse and should be better while the defense can’t be better and could be worse — all of which means the Hawkeyes should once again win eight or nine games. The difference in 2024: Without the Big Ten’s division format, they won’t have the opportunity to get poleaxed in the conference championship. Toughest games: vs. Iowa State, at Ohio State, vs. Nebraska
21. Oklahoma: Few schools have more to lose in the realignment game than Oklahoma, which relinquished a competitive advantage by moving from the Big 12 into the SEC. A soft non-conference schedule should pad the Sooners’ win total and help offset what will be an intensely challenging season for third-year coach Brent Venables. Toughest games: vs. Texas (in Dallas), at Missouri, at LSU
22. Wisconsin: Our second sleeper selection is based on the same formula used to assess Nebraska: A head coach (Luke Fickell) whose track record suggests substantial improvement is coming in Year 2. The Badgers return 15 starters and, in typical fashion, will have one of the Big Ten’s best offensive lines to protect quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who transferred from Miami. Toughest games: vs. Alabama, at Iowa, vs. Oregon
23. Boise State: Our highest-ranked Group of Five team should continue its momentum from last season, win the Mountain West and represent the G5 in the playoff. The Broncos return 11 starters on defense and have a first-rate tailback in Ashton Jeanty. All eyes will be on quarterback Malachi Nelson, the former five-star recruit whose career began at USC. Toughest games: at Oregon, at UNLV, at Wyoming
24. Kansas: The phenomenal rise under Lance Leipold has hit a glass ceiling after the Jayhawks churned out nine wins last year. Can they break through? It depends on quarterback Jaylon Daniels’ fragile back. If he’s healthy throughout conference play, KU could very well find itself in the Big 12 championship. Toughest games: at West Virginia, at Kansas State, vs. Iowa State
25. Memphis: Meet the top challenger to Boise State for Group of Five supremacy. The Tigers return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last season and have the ingredients needed to win the American if the defensive front holds up. Toughest games: at Florida State, at UTSA, at Tulane
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