Kamala Harris is leading Trump by 25 points in her home state, a new poll of California voters found, building on the 18-point lead that Biden had over Trump in February with gains in popularity among young, independent and Black voters.
The latest Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll was conducted between July 31 and August 11 and surveyed more than 3,000 likely California voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The poll, released Wednesday, compares current results to those collected in February, before President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race last month.
The poll shows that traditionally Democratic subgroups where Biden was “underperforming” are “returning to Harris,” said Berkeley IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.
Harris has gained the largest jump in support from young voters, a group that includes more voters of color. Californians ages 18-29 polled 50% for Biden in February and 73% for Harris in August, a 23-point increase.
California youth in February took issue with Biden’s age and “didn’t see him as a viable candidate,” DiCamillo said. Now, almost 3/4 of the demographic support Harris, with 22% backing Trump and 5% undecided.
“It bodes well for Harris,” DiCamillo said. “Biden was certainly not embraced by the youth of California.”
Harris received support from 74% with Black voters, a gain of 16 points. Black voters in February polled at 58% for Biden, a “relatively low” number, DiCamillo said. Latino voter support for Harris increased by 10 points, from 48 to 58%.
The percentage of overall undecided voters shrunk by half since February, from 14% to 7% overall. Such a high percentage of undecided voters in February was “unusual” for a race between well-known candidates, DiCamillo said.
“The electorate was less enthusiastic,” DiCamillo said. “They had a more difficult time deciding.”
Overall, the undecided voters shifted their support to the Harris campaign. But Asian and Pacific Islander voters, who polled at 22% undecided in February, were divided more evenly. Harris gained 9 points among the group and Trump gained 8 as the percentage of undecided voters shrank to 5%.
Harris also saw a considerable boost in image ratings, from 48% in January to 58% favorable ratings in early August. Harris’s pick for running mate, Tim Walz, also polled favorably among Democrats.
Both overall support for Trump and his image ratings remained stable at 34% overall, with Republican support rising to 90% from 87% in February.
“He’s probably still got the same voters,” DiCamillo said.
