It won’t take long to determine the extent of Arizona State’s year-over-year improvement under coach Kenny Dillingham. Are the Sun Devils poised to make an impact in the Big 12? Is bowl berth within reach? Is Dillingham’s master plan working as designed?
The answers will begin to materialize Saturday against a dangerous Week 1 opponent.
In the August heat, Wyoming is black ice.
The Cowboys don’t carry a high profile, even within the Mountain West space. Their first visit to Tempe since 1977 won’t produce buzz on campus, put fans in the stands or generate healthy fear in ASU’s locker room.
But they are more than capable of taking Arizona State to the wire.
The Cowboys have been bowl-eligible for seven consecutive seasons (excluding 2020) and won nine games last year, including a victory over Texas Tech in the season opener.
If not for a coaching change — from the brilliant Craig Bohl, who retired, to the unproven Jay Sawvel — the matchup would be closer to a tossup. Instead, the Sun Devils are favored by seven points.
Season openers are like misdirection plays, drawing our attention away from what truly matters.
But we suspect the first game of Dillingham’s second season will provide significant clarity on the path ahead. There isn’t much difference between Wyoming and the lowest-tier teams in the Big 12.
So permit us to extrapolate:
If the Sun Devils win decisively Saturday, they just might provide an upside surprise in conference play.
If they struggle, their position in the Big 12’s preseason poll — dead last, in case you missed the news — could very well prove spot on.
To the picks …
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
North Dakota State (+10) at Colorado
Kickoff: Thursday at 5 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Bison are typically one of the best FCS programs, and Colorado knows it. Despite all the off-field distractions, the Buffaloes should be ready. We foresee an uneven season ahead in Boulder, but it starts impressively. Pick: Colorado
TCU (-9.5) at Stanford
Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Feels like a few too many points given the uncertainties that accompany season openers, TCU’s mediocre roster (based on its 5-7 record last season) and a marginal home-field edge for the Cardinal. Feels like an upset special. Pick: Stanford
Portland State (+28.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on The CW
Comment: It has been years since the Vikings were competitive against opponents of WSU’s caliber, but they don’t need to be competitive to cover 28.5 points — a backdoor entrance will do just fine. The Cougars’ unprecedented season starts with a victory, although not by four touchdowns. Pick: Portland State
Idaho State (+27.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: Honestly, we have no idea what to expect from the Beavers — none, zero, zip. They simply have too many new pieces in key places, including the top of the organizational chart (first-year coach Trent Bray). And in the absence of context, the Hotline tends to be wary of big lines. Pick: Idaho State
UCLA (-14.5) at Hawaii
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: With so much new for UCLA, this stands as one of the most interesting openers on the schedule. Will rookie coach DeShaun Foster have his team properly prepared? If the Bruins struggle in Honolulu, a difficult upcoming schedule will suddenly look overwhelming. Pick: Hawaii
New Mexico (+31.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: A trap game for the Wildcats in that they watched New Mexico blow a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead at home against Montana State last weekend. Coach Brent Brennen implored them to remain locked in. We believed they listened. Pick: Arizona
Wyoming (+7) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on FS1
Comment: ASU’s starting quarterback, Sam Leavitt, attempted 23 passes in four games last season for Michigan State — and that’s the extent of his college experience. He’s effectively a rookie, and he’s facing a veteran defense that finished in the top third of the FBS last season in yards-per-play allowed. Pick: Wyoming
USC (+4.5) vs. LSU in Las Vegas
Kickoff: Sunday at 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The only game on Sunday features exorbitantly paid head coaches, USC’s Lincoln Riley and LSU’s Brian Kelly, under pressure to produce first-rate seasons. Both teams have new quarterbacks. Both have questionable defenses. This should be tight into the fourth quarter. We like the Trojans to cover but love the Over (64.5). Pick: USC
Straight-up winners: Colorado, Stanford, WSU, OSU, UCLA, Arizona, Wyoming and USC
Five-star special: Stanford. With an offseason to prepare, Troy Taylor will out-coach Sonny Dykes with enough room to spare enough to cover that 9.5-point spread.
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