For the third straight year, and fifth time in Farhan Zaidi’s six seasons in charge, the Giants are going to be watching the playoffs from home.
With a 0.3% playoff odds, per Fangraphs, San Francisco (68-70) is all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason. They’re so far behind in the wild-card standings that they’re not even able to provide fans with September games that carry playoff ramifications.
San Francisco was five games out of a wild card spot on the day of the trade deadline, when Zaidi’s front office opted against either going all out for a playoff run or selling veterans for future assets.
Since then, Zaidi’s “best rotation in baseball” has been let down by an offense that ranks 25th in wRC+ since the deadline; the Giants lost two head-scratching extra-inning games in a row against Atlanta; and failed to take advantage of soft patches in their schedule, going a combined 4-4 against the lowly A’s, White Sox and Marlins.
So the best the Giants can do in September is play spoiler.
But meaningless September baseball isn’t meaningless for everyone. It can preview what a team will look like next year and provide glimpses into how they value their players; actions like playing time, shut-downs, call-ups and DFAs speak for themselves.
September ball can also lie. David Villar hit eight home runs in September (and October) of 2022, but that certainly didn’t lead to a breakout for the infielder.
Still, there remain worthwhile reasons to watch the Giants in September. After all, when the month’s over, there won’t even be a choice to tune in until March.
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Call-ups to watch for
The Giants promoted Tristan Beck and Blake Sabol when rosters expanded to start September, adding a pair of interesting players to the mix.
Beck was certainly in the team’s plans for the pitching staff, but suffered an arm aneurysm in spring training that derailed his season. He had a promising 2023 season, registering a 3.92 ERA in a hybrid role, but will have to re-establish himself after so much time away.
Sabol, meanwhile, showed flashes as a hitter last year but has been buried in Triple-A this season. The left-handed hitter is on the wrong side of a potential platoon with Patrick Bailey, but catching depth is an obvious area of need for the Giants that he could address.
Either can put themselves in a strong position to be in next year’s plans with a strong finish.
Even more compelling are top prospects Marco Luciano and Luis Matos, who are likely next in line for call-ups whenever San Francisco shuts guys down or faces more injuries.
The organization probably doesn’t view Luciano as a shortstop anymore, yet he continues to play the position for the River Cats. Getting the high-upside 22-year-old MLB reps at a different position could provide information on how the team views him.
Matos has also struggled at the big-league level, but the Giants could use September as an opportunity to give him extended time to adjust to MLB pitching. At some point, the Giants need to see what they have in Luciano and Matos, and the only way to do that is to let them play regularly for a real stretch.
Other young players who could get more chances at the MLB level in September include Mason Black, Landon Roupp, Wade Meckler, and Villar. That’s in addition to players like Tyler Fitzgerald, Grant McCray, and Spencer Bivens, who will continue to get opportunities at the big-league level.
Looming shut-downs
The question Zaidi and Bob Melvin will inevitably face in the coming weeks is who and when they will let some of their overtaxed players get an early start on their winters.
Logan Webb is leading MLB in innings for a second straight year, but he doesn’t have the numbers to push for Cy Young like he did last year. The ace of San Francisco’s staff has been as durable as they come, and he always wants to take the ball, but saving some bullets for next year and beyond could be wise.
Jordan Hicks, currently on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, has passed 100 innings for the first time in his career. He proved he can be a viable member of the rotation already, so it could make sense to shut him down and let him build up for a full load next season.
Then there are Tyler Rogers and Ryan Walker, who are first and second in MLB in appearances (68 and 67). Walker, in particular, has established himself as a high-leverage option, possibly even as the full-time closer, and has thrown by far the most innings of his professional career. Adding more miles to his right arm while the Giants are out of postseason contention has more risk than reward.
Even Kyle Harrison, the touted southpaw, has pitched a career-high 121.2 innings. The Giants were protective of him as he advanced through the minor leagues, and caution could be the way to go considering the trend of arm injuries for pitches sport-wide.
San Francisco could also scale back the playing time of some veteran position players to open up innings for young guys.
Can Camilo Doval regain his form?
As the Giants’ postseason hopes slipped away, they demoted 2023 All-Star closer Camilo Doval. They recalled him two weeks later and have used Doval only in non-save situations.
Doval has had issues controlling the running game, handling the pitch clock, and commanding the strike zone. Relievers are notoriously fickle, but Doval is in his prime, is under team control for the next three years, and has too much raw skill to fall out of San Francisco’s plans.
Since returning from Triple-A, Doval has allowed one run in 4 ⅓ innings (2.08 ERA), though he has walked four batters.
Getting Doval back in high-leverage situations could give him some momentum for next season. Because if he can get rolling again, Doval and Walker – in one way or another – could form a dangerous combo in the eighth and ninth innings.
Potential goodbyes
Matt Chapman, who has had a fantastic season, is likely to decline his 2025 player option in search of a multi-year deal. Ditto for Blake Snell.
Michael Conforto is set to hit free agency at season’s end and the Giants’ outfield has a strong foundation already with Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Mike Yastrzemski.
Wilmer Flores is under contract but doesn’t appear to have a path to regular playing time next season. And although he was terrific in the first half, LaMonte Wade Jr. may not be San Francisco’s Plan A at first base going forward.
The Giants also placed Taylor Rogers and Thairo Estrada on waivers last week (they outrighted Estrada to Triple-A when nobody claimed him), revealing how the organization views them.
That’s a big group of possible lame-duck Giants. Estrada, Flores, and Wade are the last three Willie Mac Award winners. Chapman and Snell were San Francisco’s signature signings last winter.
If we haven’t already seen the last of them in a Giants uniform, September could be their last licks in orange and black.
