In one of the most surprising developments of the early season, Arizona State faces a major trap game this week at Texas State.
Bad teams don’t encounter trap games. They are the trap. But for the first time in three years, the Sun Devils aren’t a bad team.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re good — they very well could be mediocre. But they definitely aren’t bad. And that’s a notable accomplishment for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham.
Okay, back to the trap.
ASU is fresh off two inspired victories, over Wyoming and Mississippi State, and far more relevant than most onlookers expected. (Guilty!)
It’s not the results that have impressed the Hotline — Wyoming just lost to Idaho, and Mississippi State could be the worst team in the SEC — so much as ASU’s energy, execution and overall level of competence.
With a 2-0 mark and conference play around the corner, the Sun Devils are on the road against a Sun Belt Conference opponent on a short week. Kickoff is Thursday evening in San Marcos.
Our hunch: Until very recently, most ASU players had no idea Texas State even played college football. Same with the students and fans around campus who have been congratulating the players on their hot start.
In other words, it’s a classic trap situation for a team with zero experience managing trap situations.
That said, all that matters to the Sun Devils on Thursday evening is the end result. Whether they run the Bobcats off the field or beat them 10-9, victory is all that matters for a team on the brink of the brink of the brink of the postseason.
A victory would push ASU’s record to 3-0. And when you’re perfect in non-conference play, the margin for error in league games expands significantly.
(Yes, we are about to discuss ASU’s bowl math which, admittedly, isn’t a topic the Hotline expected to broach on Sept. 9.)
If they beat Texas State, the Sun Devils would need to win just three of nine games against Big 12 opponents to secure a postseason berth that would provide rocket fuel to Dillingham’s reclamation project.
Now, context is critical. As noted in this space a month ago, ASU misses many of the lower-tier teams in the Big 12 but plays all five of the teams projected to contend for the title.
The Sun Devils drew Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Kansas, which leaves very few soft spots in their final nine games — even for a team that would only need three wins.
One of those soft spots is ASU’s first conference opponent, Texas Tech, which just lost at Washington State by three touchdowns. Another is Cincinnati. Also, UCF. And perhaps Brigham Young. (Cue the outrage in Provo.)
If the Sun Devils win three of those four, they would clinch a bowl berth without having to beat any of the top-tier opponents on the schedule. Win two, and they would need one victory over the Big 12’s premier teams.
But if they lose to Texas State, the path into the postseason gets exponentially more difficult.
It’s not just managing their business against the lower tier, it’s at least one and quite possibly two wins over the heavyweights.
This, for a team that was picked last in the Big 12 preseason media poll and — if we’re being candid — might not be nearly as good as it appeared against Wyoming and Mississippi State.
So while it might be natural for ASU to overlook Texas State, the consequences of doing so would be far greater than it seems.
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