Arizona’s first-ever visit to Kansas State does not count as a Big 12 conference game, but pay that semantic no heed.
The performance will tell us exactly where the Wildcats belong in the conference hierarchy.
With a victory in Manhattan on Friday night, they should be considered the Big 12 frontrunner alongside Utah and perhaps Oklahoma State even though the result won’t count in the conference standings.
Their odds are fairly long, however. The Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs, and for good reason:
— Kansas State looked vulnerable last weekend as it rallied from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter to overtake Tulane.
But the Wildcats were picked second in the Big 12 preseason media poll, three spots ahead of Arizona, because they have won 19 games the past two years, are masterfully coached by Chris Klieman and possess two of the most dynamic playmakers in the conference in quarterback Avery Johnson and tailback DJ Giddens.
— Arizona’s performances thus far has been flawed.
The defense was wobbly in the Week 1 victory over New Mexico, which featured a mobile quarterback, Devon Dampier, who rushed for 130 yards and has a skill set similar to that of Kansas State’s Johnson.
The offense wasn’t sharp in the Week 2 victory over NAU, an FCS team that shut down receiver Tetairoa McMillan and held Arizona to two touchdowns.
— Friday night road games are perhaps the most challenging competitive experience in the sport.
That’s doubly true when the environment is rowdy and the opposition is stout and the coach staring at you from across the field, Klieman, is one of the best in the business.
What about Arizona’s Brent Brennan?
We examined Brennan’s recent record in short-week games during his tenure at San Jose State to gain perspective on Arizona’s preparation.
In 2021, the Spartans played three games on short weeks. They lost 23-3 at Western Michigan on a Friday night immediately following a game at Hawaii. (Insane scheduling.) Later that season, the Spartans lost at home to San Diego State 19-13 on a Friday (after a game at Colorado State), then won the following Thursday at UNLV 27-20.
In 2022, the Spartans beat UNLV 40-7 on a Friday night.
In 2023, they lost at home to Air Force 45-20 on a Friday immediately following a game at Toledo.
So the results are mixed, with Brennan’s 2-3 record in short-week games across those three seasons complicated by two long trips the week before.
We’re hesitant to draw conclusions about Brennan’s preparation strategy. But if the Wildcats escape with a victory Friday night, let there be zero doubt: They should be considered a frontrunner in the Big 12 race.
To the picks …
Last week: 7-2
Season: 11-6
Five-star special: 1-1
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Arizona State (-1.5) at Texas State (Thursday)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: A major trap game for the Sun Devils, as we explained earlier in the week. Texas State is a top-tier Sun Belt team with a veteran quarterback, Jordan McCloud, who faced Oregon and UCLA during his one season playing for Arizona (2021). To remain undefeated, ASU must play its best game of the season with a super-short week of preparation. Pick: Texas State
Arizona (+7.5) at Kansas State (Friday)
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: Efficiency on third down and in the Red Zone is paramount for the Wildcats, as is limiting mistakes on special teams. But we would add an effective running game to the short list of essentials. Nothing deflates a rowdy road atmosphere like six yards on first down, drive after drive after drive. Pick: Arizona
Alabama (-15.5) at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The Crimson Tide struggled to put away South Florida last weekend, which would seemingly suggest a lower point spread in Big Ten country. But the Badgers have been unimpressive themselves with 14-point wins over Western Michigan and South Dakota. Presuming coach Luke Fickell has been hiding the creative component in his offense for two games, we expect a better showing — more than enough to cover the number. Pick: Wisconsin
Washington State (+4.5) vs. Washington (Lumen Field)
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Peacock
Comment: The game of the year for the Cougars is anything but that for the Huskies, and therein lies the intrigue: UW has better players across the 22 positions, and more depth; but the emotional edge is heavily in WSU’s favor. The Cougars need quarterback John Mateer to make plays from the pocket, not simply with his legs, and they must protect him from a UW pass rush that has eight sacks in two games. That said, if WSU cannot stop Huskies tailback Jonah Coleman, nothing else matters. Pick: Washington.
Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The point spread was over 20 when the season began, but Oregon’s wobbly showings have shifted the money flow to OSU. The disparity in personnel is immense; so, too, is the difference in psychology. This is the only game that really matters to the Beavers and what should be a delirious home crowd. Their prospects for success depend heavily on Oregon contributing to its own demise. We like OSU to cover, but it won’t be close in the fourth quarter unless the Ducks are sloppy with the ball and their assignments. Pick: Oregon State
Related Articles
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ASU football: As relevance returns, Sun Devils hit the road for a game far more important than it seems
Pac-12 bowl projections: The Apple Cup matters more to Washington’s postseason math than you might think
Pac-12 survival: Oregon State AD Scott Barnes is rooting for “chaos” in other conferences and happy to admit it
College Football Playoff projections: Oklahoma State’s (possibly) big win and three at-large bids for SEC, Big Ten
Colorado (-7) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The in-state rivals played one of the best early-season games of 2023, with CU prevailing in double overtime. The Rams had numerous chances to win despite four turnovers and 17 penalties. We suspect they will limit (but not eliminate) the mistakes. Add the home field and their knowledge of CU’s schemes, and this should be down to the wire once again. Pick: Colorado State
Indiana (-3) at UCLA
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: It doesn’t get much lower in the point-spread space than being a home underdog in your Big Ten opener against a team picked 17th in the conference race. But such is the lack of respect assigned to UCLA by the oddsmakers and betting public after the suboptimal showing at Hawaii. The Bruins had two weeks to prepare and, in theory, should raise their game enough to handle the Hoosiers, who were 3-9 last year and have a new coach (Curt Cignetti). We need to see it before we believe it. Pick: Indiana
San Diego State (-18.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Hotline is typically as wary of Cal as a big favorite as we are enamored of Cal as a major underdog, and this is a classic letdown situation following the win at Auburn. But SDSU was inept offensively in a 21-0 home loss to Oregon State, leaving us to wonder if the Aztecs are capable of generating enough touchdowns to cover the number, assuming the Bears manage to score in the 20s. Pick: Cal
Straight-up winners: Texas State, Kansas State, Alabama, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Indiana and Cal
Five-star special: Washington. How will WSU quarterback John Mateer respond to UW’s pass rush and the pro-Husky crowd? He has attempted 55 passes over three seasons, but only five have come away from Martin Stadium.
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