If California consumers are suddenly optimistic, as one survey suggests, why did another poll show bad times coming for the Golden State economy?
Welcome to a curious public opinion gap.
Let’s start with September polling by the Conference Board that showed statewide consumer confidence reversed to a 19-month-high . Not only was it a huge one-month surge, these suddenly upbeat California shoppers had sharply opposite financial feelings compared to plunging national optimism found in the same polling.
Next, contrast that Golden State happy talk with a new Public Policy Institute of California survey done from Aug. 29 through Sept. 9 . This polling found 61% of Golden Staters chose the gloomy side of this question: “Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?”
To help explain this chasm , my trusty spreadsheet reviewed PPIC polling which has routinely sought answers to that economic outlook question going back to 1999. The latest dour result could be seen as relative optimism when viewed through a short-run prism. Let me explain.
The 61% of Californians expecting bad times is an improvement from the 68% found in June’s polling. In fact, this latest result is the lowest level of bad-time vibes going back 10 polls to a 57% reading in April 2022. Hey, in June 2020 – four years ago – 80% anticipated bad times in the future.
Part of these fear-based gyrations were created by the Federal Reserve. In March 2022 when the central bank began a war on inflation with painfully high interest rates . That tight-money policy ended this month .
We must note that September’s conflicting signals of economic angst runs at a sharp contrast to pre-pandemic 2015-19, considered the good ol’ days by many folks.
That era’s 21 PPIC polls averaged 40% bad times in forecast results. California’s stunningly buoyant consumer confidence only equals the average optimism of 2015-19.
Now, the quarter-century of PPIC economic polling suggests that Californians like to worry about the economy.
The “bad news” folks outnumbered “good news” forecasts in 61 of 97 PPIC polls since 1999. Or, on average, 53% of Californians surveyed forecast bad times ahead vs. 39% seeing good times coming.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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