Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the Warriors and beyond
No team has repeated as NBA champion since the Warriors won back-to-back titles in 2017 and 2018. There’s more parity, talent, roster turnover and 3-point volatility in the league than ever.
The Celtics mastered modern basketball, completely obliterating everyone in their path en route to the title.
Boston had a league-leading 123.2 offensive rating last season, and their offensive efficiency after the All-Star Break — when the league cracked down on touch fouls — was a staggering 12.1 points better than anyone else. Combining the regular season and playoffs, they went 80-21 — tied for the seventh-best record of all time.
Then they brought everyone back.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the league’s most durable superstars, are still either in their prime or entering it. Derrick White is the most valuable role player in the NBA and Jrue Holiday remains arguably the most versatile defender. They go eight deep with players who can defend and hit 3s at volume.
Boston’s best players, The Jays, also enter the season with additional external motivation (thanks to Steve Kerr and Team USA).
Rarely does a defending champion maintain its core and start a title defense with chips on their shoulders. With the realities of the second apron and the team’s massive financial straits looming, this is probably the Celtics’ last chance with this group to make a run, so there’s urgency, too.
These Celtics are certainly built to win another championship. If anyone’s going to repeat, it’s going to be these Celtics. Yet the task is still so daunting.
It requires another 100-plus games of basketball. It requires health luck, and Kristaps Porzingis is already set to miss the first half of the season. It requires sacrifice up and down the roster — probably even more than it did the first time around.
Repeating is so difficult in the current NBA climate, the Warriors needed arguably the greatest collection of talent ever to do so.
The Celtics are well positioned to go back-to-back, but recent history isn’t on their side.
The Finals pick: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Celtics.
Let’s whip around the Association.
Most intriguing players
Players most likely to become X-factors, or at the very least have a wide range of possible outcomes. Let’s go with three in each conference.
East: Josh Giddey (Bulls), Guerschon Yabusele (76ers), Jonathan Isaac (Magic)
West: Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)
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Best bet
Vegas has the Grizzlies’ over/under set at 47.5 wins. Not only are they going to win more than that, they have a shot at threatening OKC for the top seed in the West.
Ja Morant is in his prime. Desmond Bane is a star. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a force on both ends. Marcus Smart can give Memphis even more versatility defensively. Rookie Zach Edey should provide a different dimension and the bench core of Santi Aldama, Vince Williams Jr., Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard makes a whole lot of sense.
The trio of Morant, Jackson and Bane outscored opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions two years ago. It’s possible all three of them are better players now than they were then, and Memphis also has better options around them. They’re ready to return to contention, like when they captured the No. 2 seed two seasons ago.
Other best bets: Phoenix over 47.5 wins, Nets under 18.5 wins, James Harden to lead the league in assists (+900).
(Call 1-800-Gambler if you’re tempted to bet any of the myriad of Bronny James props).
Biggest surprise team
Orlando arrived last year, claiming the fifth seed in the East on the back of an elite defense.
With ascending stars in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, plus the pickup of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Magic should be firmly in playoff contention. They’ve been pegged behind the Pacers and Cavaliers by many pundits, but in reality are closer to the 76ers than they are to the middle class.
Rookie of the Year prediction
Everybody loves Reed Sheppard, but the Rockets have a lot of mouths to feed. He’ll definitely be involved, but the former Kentucky guard is in a backcourt depth chart with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.
Ime Udoka’s Rockets are deep and will be a problem in the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff picture.
But give me Stephon Castle for Rookie of the Year.
Castle has a chance to be an elite defender and he gets to learn from Chris Paul. San Antonio is going to need his point-of-attack defense, and his shot creation looked better than advertised in Summer League.
The Rookie of the Year award typically goes to the highest-scoring rook, and Castle probably won’t be that. But if the Spurs are ahead of schedule like I think they are, it’ll be because Castle overperforms alongside Victor Wembanyama.
Team you don’t want to see on the second night of a back-to-back
Heavy legs and a suboptimal night of sleep won’t pair well with running with the Sacramento Kings.
The well-coached Kings play hard every night and they’re primed to get back to a top-five offense. De’Aaron Fox speeds you up, DeMar DeRozan slows you down, and Domantas Sabonis puts an elbow through your chest. They’re not going to play much defense, but good luck keeping up with the Kings.
Best player to change teams midseason
The Rockets were better last year when Alperen Sengun was sidelined, as Jalen Green got to initiate more offense and Jabari Smith played more small-ball center. If they stumble, Sengun — a nightly double-double and excellent passing big — could get moved.
First-Team All-Watchable
The new-look Nova Knicks
The run-n-gun Pacers
The Spurs and their CP3-Wemby connection
The historically great Celtics
Steph Curry & Co in Golden State
If they’re on TV, tune in.
