The Best of the West offers fans a candid assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection that includes the Mountain West and the former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and West Coast Conference.
The following preseason forecast will lead into the Hotline’s power rankings, published weekly throughout the regular season.
(All times Pacific)
Also considered: Arizona State, Brigham Young, Cal, Montana, Montana State, New Mexico, Seattle, UNLV and Washington State
1. Gonzaga
Season opener: vs. Baylor (Monday)
Comment: The spring momentum should carry over, placing Gonzaga on the short list of frontrunners for the Final Four. Scoring won’t be an issue with so many gifted returnees and the addition of Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi. But will the Zags muster granite defense when they need it most (i.e., in March)? If so, this could be one of Mark Few’s best teams.
2. Arizona
Season opener: vs. Canisius (Monday)
Comment: For all the attention heaped on the Big 12 move, the fourth season of the Tommy Lloyd era will be defined by the same standard as the previous three: Arizona’s performance in the NCAA Tournament. Granted, their rugged new conference should prepare the Wildcats for March, but life in the Big 12 could lead to more losses, a lower seed and tougher matchups in the first and second rounds.
3. UCLA
Season opener: vs. Rider (Monday)
Comment: We are quite confident UCLA’s first basketball season in the Big Ten will be more successful than its first football season. How much more successful depends on the speed with which coach Mick Cronin assimilates his new pieces and forges a cohesive unit. The Bruins were dreadful offensively last season. The uptick on that end of the court should be noticeable.
4. San Diego State
Season opener: vs. UC San Diego (Wednesday)
Comment: The Aztecs were decimated by attrition and picked fourth in the Mountain West preseason media poll, so either the 26 voters will be proven wrong by season’s end or the Hotline’s faith in SDSU will look wildly misplaced. Despite the roster turnover, coach Brian Dutcher’s culture and style are deeply ingrained — and have proof of performance.
5. Oregon
Season opener: vs. UC Riverside
Comment: There is plenty to like about a core that features TJ Bamba, Jackson Shelstad, Nate Bittle and Kwame Evans Jr. (and other familiar names), but two significant unknowns give us pause: How will the Ducks adjust to life in the Big Ten, with the accompanying travel and physicality; and will they stay reasonably healthy for the first time in years?
6. Boise State
Season opener: vs. Oakland (Wednesday)
Comment: The Broncos were the overwhelming pick to win the Mountain West in the preseason media poll, largely because of returning star Tyson Degenhart. Not to be overlooked is the arrival of point guard Alvaro Cardenas, who averaged 12.2 points and 5.5 assists for San Jose State last season and could bring out the best in BSU’s frontline.
7. Grand Canyon
Season opener: vs. Cal State Fullerton (Monday)
Comment: One of the most significant offseason decisions in the region was easy to miss: Weeks before the NBA Draft in June, GCU star Tyon Grant-Foster announced he would return to school. Instantly, the Lopes became the overwhelming favorite to win the WAC and return to the NCAA Tournament — perhaps as a single-digit seed.
8. San Francisco
Season opener: vs. Cal Poly (Tuesday)
Comment: Chris Gerlufsen more than meets the coaching standard set on The Hilltop in recent years by Kyle Smith and Todd Golden. But the departure of all-everything forward Jonathan Mogbo to the NBA Draft threatens to derail the Dons’ streak of 20-win seasons (in non-COVID years) — that is, unless Gerlufsen assimilates his new pieces quickly.
9. Saint Mary’s
Season opener: vs. Towson (Monday)
Comment: After years of limited attrition, the Gaels finally got hit by the transfer portal. Actually, they got whacked. Guard Aidan Mahaney’s move to UConn and forward Joshua Jefferson’s jump to Iowa State will have a lasting impact on SMC despite the typical wizardry conjured by coach Randy Bennett. The roster is hardly barren — star guard Augustas Marciulionis is back — but it’s not what it could have been.
10. USC
Season opener: vs. Chattanooga (Monday)
Comment: The Trojans are entering a new conference (the Big Ten) with a new coach (Eric Musselman) and a new roster that features 11 transfers and only two returnees. Point guard Desmond Claude, who averaged 16.6 points for Xavier last season, is the key to making the Musselman magic work in Year 1. Over time, however, his arrival will transform the Trojans — and college basketball across the region.
Related Articles
Holy Score: What the past 20 matchups reveal about Utah’s chances to upset undefeated Brigham Young
Pac-12 bowl projections: WSU and Colorado churn on while ASU ticks up, Arizona and Utah fade fast
College Football Playoff projections: Notre Dame looms large over the selection process
Best of the West power rankings: Colorado climbs and Cal ticks up while Arizona, Utah continue to slide
Saturday Night Five: Frustration rampant for fans of three schools caught in the Nick Saban retirement chain reaction
11. Nevada
Season opener: vs. Sam Houston (Monday)
Comment: Steve Alford has produced plenty of success in Reno with 48 wins the past two seasons, and his roster is stocked with enough talent to return to the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. But will the Wolf Pack survive and advance after losing their past two March Madness openers?
12. Utah State
Season opener: vs. Alcorn State (Wednesday)
Comment: Expectations are modest for first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, who moved to Logan after seven seasons at Youngstown State. Then again, the Aggies were picked ninth in the Mountain West in 2023-24 but won the regular-season title, reached the NCAAs and lost first-year coach Danny Sprinkle to Washington. So think twice about dismissing USU.
13. Washington
Season opener: vs. UC Davis (Tuesday)
Comment: Speaking of Sprinkle, another challenge awaits: He accepted the Washington job last spring and immediately began rebuilding the roster. (His additions include big man Great Osobor, who excelled with Utah State.) The Big Ten transition won’t be seamless, in part because of the travel demands, but we expect the Huskies to improve on their 17-15 mark from last year.
14. UC Irvine
Season opener: vs. Chapman (Monday)
Comment: All UCI coach Russell Turner has done is win at least 20 games in seven of the past 10 years and claim six Big West regular-season titles in that span. His lineup this season includes all-conference guard Justin Hohn. Look for more of the same success for the Anteaters.
15. Santa Clara
Season opener: vs. Saint Louis (Monday)
Comment: The recent upturns at San Francisco and Santa Clara have added quality depth to the WCC, which was a two-school conference for many years. The Broncos are plenty capable of finishing second in the race this season — or fifth. Much depends on Adama Bal, the former Arizona guard now in his second year with Santa Clara.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
