In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present.
The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season. Bowl selections will be made on Dec. 8.
Please note: We also unveil our CFP picks each Monday.
Washington State has lost three games in a row as a double-digit favorite, but the Cougars are not in free fall. Their tumble will end Sunday courtesy of a safety net within the Pac-12’s bowl selection process that prevents teams with lesser records from taking WSU’s spot in the pecking order.
Although scattered across four different conferences, the Pac-12 legacy schools are tied to the conference’s longtime bowl partners with a selection framework similar to the version used in the past.
That includes the so-called ‘one-loss-down’ rule.
It states that bowls cannot pass on one team in favor of another if there is more than a one-loss difference in record.
The Cougars have eight wins, meaning they could be leapfrogged in the selection process by a team with seven wins — except there are no teams with seven wins.
However, there are three with six: Cal, USC and Washington all finished with 6-6 records.
Technically, any of those three could only pass the Cougars for a berth in the Alamo Bowl, which has a carve-out in the one-loss-down rule allowing it to select any eligible team not bound for the College Football Playoff.
But for Washington State, the Alamo Bowl is irrelevant. Officials are expected to select Colorado, the top prize among the Pac-12 legacy schools because of coach Deion Sanders.
Once the Alamo picks, the remaining bowls are required to follow the one-loss-down rule.
Arizona State, which has 10 wins, must be picked ahead of the Cougars, who have eight — unless, of course, the Sun Devils win the Big 12 championship game and advance to the CFP.
But USC, Washington and Cal cannot jump the Cougars for berths in the Holiday or Las Vegas Bowls. (The Hotline confirmed this state-of-affairs with the Pac-12.)
Once ASU and Colorado have their destinations set, Washington State will be assigned to the top remaining bowl in the selection order because of its two-game advantage in the win column over the remaining eligible teams.
It’s San Diego or Sin City for the Cougars.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: The Ducks are playing for seed on Saturday evening in Indianapolis — and, of course, for the Big Ten championship itself. With a victory, they would receive the No. 1 seed in the CFP and be assigned to the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 (quarterfinals). With a loss, Oregon likely would be the No. 5 seed and play a home game on Dec. 20-21.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Colorado (Dec. 28 vs. Big 12)
Comment: The Buffaloes likely will get matched against a bowl-eligible Big 12 team they didn’t face during the regular season. We’d love that team to be Arizona State, if the Sun Devils lose on Saturday. But it could be Brigham Young.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona State (Dec. 27 vs. ACC)
Comment: If the Sun Devils win the Big 12 and jump into the playoff, everyone below them in the pecking order would move up one level — and the berth in the Holiday would go to Washington State.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington State (Dec. 27 vs. SEC)
Comment: The Hotline believes WSU would be better off playing in Las Vegas against an SEC team than moving up one spot and facing an ACC foe in the Holiday Bowl. Better destination for fans and more intriguing opponent.
Sun Bowl
Team: USC (Dec. 31 vs. ACC)
Comment: The Trojans might benefit by not having a mega-star on the roster, because they aren’t in danger of losing that player to an opt-out situation and thus scaring off bowl partners.
LA Bowl
Team: Cal (Dec. 18 vs. Mountain West)
Comment: There could be some horse-trading at the lower end of the pecking order since Cal participated in the Independence Bowl last year, and neither the bowl nor the Bears wants a return engagement. So maybe the LA Bowl agrees to leave Washington for the good folks in Shreveport.
Related Articles
CFP rankings preview: Boise St vs Big 12 and ACC vs SEC
Best of West FB rankings: Oregon on top followed by ASU, Boise State
Saturday Night Five: How Oregon could win from losing, ASU clinches, Arizona falls, WSU fades and updated bowl math
Mailbag: Bleak future for CFP committee if SEC doesn’t get its way
West Coast recruiting: Cal, Oregon duel for four-star QB prospect
Independence Bowl
Team: Washington (Dec. 28 vs. American)
Comment: If Arizona State wins the Big 12 and advances to the CFP, the Huskies could, in theory, climb all the way to the Las Vegas Bowl. Their range of possible landing spots remains wide.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: Keeping first-year coach Brent Brennan was the right move for the football program and the athletic department. But goodness, he has a daunting challenge ahead.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: We thought the Beavers would lose to WSU, and they didn’t. We thought they would get embarrassed by Boise State, and they didn’t. But for a team that was 4-1 in early October, a bowl-less postseason trumps all feel-good developments down the stretch.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: And so ends the Cardinal’s third consecutive 3-9 season, the past two under coach Troy Taylor. The Andrew Luck/Christian McCaffrey era feels like a half-century ago.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: November was better than September, which was better than July for rookie coach DeShaun Foster. Pull out a pair of binoculars, and you can spot some building blocks.
Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: The Decision could come in hours, days or weeks.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
