SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The San Francisco Giants have been a below-average offense over the last three seasons, even when factoring in Oracle Park, but they enter this season with some legitimate — and much-needed — pop in their lineup.
Willy Adames has twice hit at least 30 homers in a single season, totaling a career-high 32 home runs last season before signing a franchise-record contract. Matt Chapman hit 36 homers in 2019 and has hit 27 homers, exactly, in three of the last four seasons. Heliot Ramos hit 22 home runs despite not making his season debut until May and dealing with plantar fasciitis all season. Tyler Fitzgerald hit 15 homers in 96 games, and Jung Hoo Lee could feasily crack double figure homers while hitting in the No. 3 hole. Bryce Eldridge certainly has the power, but he won’t begin the season in the majors.
But when it comes to pure strength? No one in the Giants’ clubhouse can match Jerar Encarnacion.
“He continues to show it,” said manager Bob Melvin said of Encarnacion, who is 5-for-11 this spring with three doubles and three RBIs. “We got a look last year. We’re getting a look this year.”
The 27-year-old Encarnacion, who is out of minor-league options, doesn’t have a guaranteed spot on the Opening Day roster but will likely crack the team as a bench bat and receive some time at designated hitter. After hitting an absurd 19 homers in 26 games for Guerreros de Oaxaca of the Mexican League, Encarnacion was roughly a league average hitter in San Francisco, hitting .248 with five home runs and a .702 OPS over 35 games. Encarnacion enters this spring having played for Aguilas Cibaenas of the Dominican Winter League, where he hit .297 with an .860 OPS, 4 homers and 24 RBIs. The true allure with Encarnacion, though, lies in what’s going on under the hood.
Encarnacion’s Baseball Savant page is littered with red, and while the sample is small, there’s stock to be taken in how Encarnacion damaged the baseball. Encarnacion didn’t have enough plate appearances last season to qualify, but here’s where he would’ve ranked in some key departments:
Average Exit Velocity: 95.0 mph
Ranking (if qualified): 4th
Hard-Hit Percentage: 58.8%
Ranking (if qualified): 3rd
Bat Speed: 77.0 mph
Ranking (if qualified): 5th
Hitting the ball hard, of course, is not the end all, be all. Adames, for example, ranked in the 40th percentile of average exit velocity last season but still put up impressive power numbers. That said, exit velocity cannot be faked, and sharing company with the likes of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani isn’t insignificant.
Encarnacion didn’t need much time in San Francisco to prove he was capable of hurting the ball. Last season, the Giants put 67 balls in play of at least 110 mph; Encarnacion was responsible for eight, or about 12 percent. Encarnacion’s 115.0 mph single on Sept. 22 wasn’t just the hardest-hit ball by a Giants player all season, but it was tied for the third-hardest hit ball by a Giants player in the Statcast era (since 2015). Encarnacion also became one of the few right-handed hitters in Oracle Park’s history to hit an opposite-field home run, a feat typically reserved for the strongest of the strong.
Encarnacion’s underlying data with Triple-A Sacramento, where he hit .352 with 10 homers in 33 games, is just as enticing. According to Thomas Nestico, Encarnacion ranked in the 100th percentile of average exit velocity and wOBA (weighted on-base average).
For all his pop, Encarnacion profiles a boom-or-bust hitter. He doesn’t walk much (4.0%) and he’s struck out in a third of his major-league plate appearances. He can play first base or the corner outfield positions but rates out as a negative defender. He’s not going to cause mayhem on the bases, either. Encarnacion’s value is solely contingent on him hammering the baseball, and while he lit up Statcast, his exit velocities have yet to translate into tangible production. Given his lack of major-league track record, the Giants won’t hand him a starting role.
Wilmer Flores will likely be the team’s Opening Day designated hitter and receive a bulk of at-bats at the position to start the year over Encarnacion. Flores, 33, is coming off the worst season of his career, a year that can be attributed to him playing through right knee tendonitis. On Aug. 6, Flores underwent a Tenex procedure that ended his season. Earlier this spring, Flores admitted that he overly exerted himself.
“The way I’ve been taught to play this game, you find a way to play even if you don’t feel 100%,” Flores said. “I think I took it too far trying to play. It isn’t an excuse. I was able to hit; I just couldn’t.”
Flores unsurprisingly exercised his $3.5 million player option, and the Giants’ brass has repeatedly expressed confidence in Flores now that he’s healthy. Flores has been an above-average hitter (111 OPS+) his entire tenure in San Francisco, and he’s not too far removed from hitting a career-high 23 home runs in 2023. For these reasons, Flores has earned the benefit of the doubt.
“If Wilmer Flores is more like he was two years ago, then (designated hitter) kind of becomes an easy one,” Melvin said.
As Flores has proven over 12 major-league seasons, production is production, regardless of how it looks. While Encarnacion has the higher ceiling, he’s never consistently produced at the major-league level. Encarnacion stands to receive a fair amount of opportunity to begin the season, but time will tell if he can finally translate power into production.
“I have confidence in me, the confidence that God has given me,” Encarnacion said through team interpreter Erwin Higueros. “I know I’m strong. I have confidence in my strength and I’ll continue working really hard.”
