The NCAA Tournament is a haven for trends — betting trends, performance trends, seed success trends. Name the nugget, and it’s attached to a broader data point.
You’ve probably heard a few:
Always pick a No. 12 seed to take down a No. 5.
Never pick all the No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four.
Favor toward teams that make free throws at a high percentage.
We could go on and on … and we will: Bet against the Mountain West.
With the exception of San Diego State, which reached the national championship in 2023 and the Sweet 16 last spring, the conference has been abysmal in March.
In the past 10 years, Mountain West teams not named SDSU are 4-17 against the point spread, according to the BetIQ database.
Cut that timeframe to the past five years, and the record gets worse: Remove the Aztecs, and all other MW teams are 2-12 against the spread in the NCAAs.
The last time the Mountain West sent a team to the Sweet 16 that wasn’t SDSU? Nevada, in 2018. Since then, the conference has produced 18 tournament participants. Only the Aztecs in 2023-24 have advanced to the second weekend.
As double-digit seeds, Mountain West teams are 3-31 straight-up in March Madness, per The Action Network.
All four teams participating this month are double-digit seeds:
— No. 11 SDSU faces North Carolina on Tuesday in Dayton, a long trip with little preparation time for the Aztecs.
— No. 12 Colorado State, which won the conference tournament, faces Memphis.
— No. 10 New Mexico, the best team during the regular season, plays Marquette.
— No. 10 Utah State, which started fast but struggled down the stretch, plays UCLA.
Of the foursome, only Colorado State is favored.
Our advice: Avoid the conference at all costs.
To the picks …
All picks against the spread; odds from FanDuel
(All times Pacific)
No. 13 High Point (+8.5) over No. 4 Purdue (in Providence)
Tipoff: Thursday at 9:40 a.m. on truTV
Comment: Looking for an upset in the first set of Thursday games? High Point, which won the Big South and has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, is a potential Cinderella in the Midwest. And Purdue has certainly experienced its share of early-round exits over the years.
No. 12 McNeese State (+7.5) over No. 5 Clemson (in Providence)
Tipoff: Thursday at 12:15 p.m. on truTV
Comment: The Tigers are one year removed from an Elite Eight appearance and might have a better team this time around. But McNeese State coach Will Wade is a first-rate strategist — and a Clemson alumnus, by the way — who has the personnel to make this one of the best games of the first round.
No. 6 Brigham Young (-3.5) over No. 11 VCU (in Denver)
Tipoff: Thursday at 1:05 p.m. on TNT
Comment: BYU is fresh off its worst game in months, a blowout loss to Houston in the Big 12 tournament. How will the Cougars respond? They haven’t won a tournament game since 2012 and will feel the weight of recent history if this is close in the final minutes. We don’t expect that to be an issue, however.
No. 8 Gonzaga (-6.5) over No. 9 Georgia (in Wichita)
Tipoff: Thursday at 1:35 p.m. on TBS
Comment: For all the social media chatter about Gonzaga being seeded too low, let’s not ignore their opponent. After all, Georgia is one of the few teams in the tournament that can claim victories over No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds, having conquered Florida, St. John’s and Kentucky in the regular season. If the Zags don’t shoot well, they could be headed home unexpectedly early.
No. 11 Drake (+6.5) over No. 6 Missouri (in Wichita)
Tipoff: Thursday at 4:35 p.m. on truTV
Comment: The Bulldogs won 30 games and the Missouri Valley championship, beat Vanderbilt and Kansas State early in the season and have one of the best little-known players in the country in Bennett Stirtz. All credit to Missouri, which zoomed past expectations and deserves its seed. But the run ends here.
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No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) over No. 10 Utah State (in Lexington)
Tipoff: Thursday at 6:25 p.m. on TNT
Comment: After their embarrassing loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament, the Bruins flew home, watched the selection show, then hopped on a plane for yet another cross-country trip. The good news: They are used to crossing time zones. The even better news: Mick Cronin generally does not lose to lower seeds.
No. 10 Vanderbilt (+3.5) over No. 7 Saint Mary’s (in Cleveland)
Tipoff: Friday at 12:15 p.m. on truTV
Comment: Don’t sleep on the Commodores just because they are in the NCAAs for the first time in eight years. They won eight games in the toughest league in the land, including victories over Tennessee and Kentucky. Vanderbilt plays fast and is efficient offensively, setting up a fascinating clash with Saint Mary’s methodical style and airtight defense
No. 13 Akron (+13.5) over No. 4 Arizona (in Seattle)
Tipoff: Friday at 4:35 p.m. on truTV
Comment: Akron, champion of the MAC, is a trendy upset pick. The direction of the point spread, which opened at 15.5, reflects that sentiment. But the Zips are wobbly defensively and will struggle to stop Arizona’s guards from doing as they please. The Wildcats have a long list of bad losses in March, but they’ll survive a competitive matchup.
No. 5 Oregon (-6.5) over No. 12 Liberty (in Seattle)
Tipoff: Friday at 7:10 p.m. on truTV
Comment: We saw this matchup recently, albeit on the football field. The Ducks pounded Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 2023 season, and they will pound Liberty on Friday in the final game of the first round. Losing early in the Big Ten tournament offered a chance to rest and regroup. Expect an impressive performance from Oregon in the heart of enemy territory.
Straight-up winners: High Point, McNeese State, BYU, Gonzaga, Drake, UCLA, Saint Mary’s, Arizona and Oregon
Five-star special: UCLA. The Bruins will have no trouble scoring against Utah State and plenty of success stopping the Aggies.
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