Arizona and Oregon have played 93 times over the decades, but never as members of different conferences and never like this — never in the NCAA Tournament.
A new-era showdown of the former Pac-12 rivals is set for Sunday evening in Seattle with high stakes and stocked rosters. The winner advances to the Sweet 16 and can deem its season a success regardless of what happens next week against (presumably) Duke.
Arizona was initially favored by 4.5 points, but the line has dropped to 3.5.
That’s still a tad high. It’s a toss-up.
“Arizona’s Arizona — we’ve had some battles over the years,” Oregon coach Dana Altman said Friday night during his post-game interview on truTV.
“We know we have our work cut out … Their athleticism, their speed at which they play. We’re going to have to bring our A-game, no doubt.”
News flash: So does Arizona.
The fourth-seeded Wildcats and fifth-seeded Ducks know each other well. They played three times last season, with Arizona sweeping the season series (decisively) and Oregon counterpunching with a victory in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals.
Many of the key players are back.
The coaches are the same, the tactics are familiar and the current momentum is comparable.
Arizona blasted No. 13 Akron on Friday in the first round by 28 points with balanced offense and stellar defense.
The Wildcats then handed over the Climate Pledge Arena court to the Ducks, who walloped No. 12 Liberty by 29.
Arizona’s top scorer, Caleb Love, had 10 points on just nine shots — he wasn’t needed to carry the load with four other players scoring in double figures.
The Ducks showed off similar balance with three double-digit scorers.
Both teams have experienced point guards in Jaden Bradley (Arizona) and Jackson Shelstad (Oregon).
Both teams have talented 7-footers in Henri Veesaar (Arizona) and Nate Bittle (Oregon).
Both have depth and versatility.
The analytics suggest Arizona is better offensively and the Ducks a tad sturdier defensively.
Our view of the matchup: Forget all the statistical trends and strategic ploys and assume it’s a tight game when the teams return to the court from the under-four-minutes media timeout.
What happens then?
Which player makes the big shot?
Which team gets the critical stop?
The outcome will hinge on two or three sequences in which both teams are fully locked into the moment and nothing is easy — not a dribble or a pass or a breath of air.
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Advantage: Arizona.
The Wildcats have more ways to score than Oregon, more players with shot-making skills from more places on the court. Including the foul line.
Both teams shoot an impressive percentage, but the Wildcats have attempted 109 more free throws than Oregon this season. They get to the line with a frequency few teams can match. And that’s all it takes, folks.
Two free throws, a defensive stop and then a 3-pointer in transition — that sequence within a progression within a continuum could turn a tie game into a two-possession lead with two minutes left.
It could turn a two-point deficit into a 3-point lead with 45 seconds remaining.
That’s precisely where this game will play out:
On the most distant of margins, with an exchange of possessions that unfolds in the time it takes to check your phone for text messages and makes all the difference.
Arizona possesses more options to produce the winning sequence.
It will be close. It will be everything fans of the old Pac-12 want to see. Wildcats win, 78-73.
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