If the Giants are going to win 38 of their final 65 games — bringing them to 85 wins and, perhaps, a wild-card playoff berth — they’ll need more than what they’ve already put on the diamond.
The sample size of this season — 97 games — is absolutely large enough to know that the team’s sub-.500 output is anything but an unfair representation.
So who is going to step up?
I have some ideas. You can shoot me yours via email or text.
Patrick Bailey
The catcher isn’t exactly slumping, posting a .784 OPS in his first 264 plate appearances of the year, but there’s even more production lying in that bat.
Ironically, Bailey’s nickname — Patty Barrels — isn’t entirely accurate. He has a barrel percentage of only 6.1, the 32nd percentile in baseball.
What Bailey does do as well as anyone in the game, though, is hit the ball in the so-called “sweet spot.” Bailey’s average launch angle off the bat is downright impeccable — falling between eight degrees and 32 degrees on 45 percent of batted balls.
Find that spot often enough and you’re hitting a lot of doubles and home runs — especially when you pair it with an exceptional exit velocity of 91.7 percent.
Being a catcher is tough, and it certainly holds back offensive production, but don’t be shocked if Bailey goes on an absolute heater in the second half of the season and pushes for 20 home runs, despite only hitting seven to this point.
Randy Rodriguez
It’s clear that Rodriguez has immense talent.
It’s also evident that he’s not used to the role that has made him a Major League player — fireballing reliever.
Rodriguez has been up and down so far in his rookie season. An outstanding May morphed into a tough June, but July has been better. He is a rookie, after all.
But I’m betting on the rest of July, August, and September to be downright dominant.
The stuff is undeniable. There are four pitchers in the game (minimum 40 innings pitched) who have a better four-seam fastball, per Stuff-Plus. His slider is a plus pitch. But you could have guessed that, right?
My question: When you have two pitches that good, why throw anything else?
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Rodriguez was brought up as a starter in the Giants’ system. He was still a multi-innings guy when he was in Triple-A last season.
This creeps in when you see him throwing his other two pitches — a sinker to righties and a changeup to lefties.
Combined, they only account for 12 percent of his pitches thrown, but the sinker is league-average at best and the changeup is a harder sell, coming in 28 points below league-average on the Stuff-Plus model.
With those two other pitches, Rodriguez is still, well, pitching.
The dude only needs to throw.
I can appreciate that the reliever wants to maintain his craft, and I understand that the Giants asked Rodriguez to turn in multiple-inning efforts in the bigs — such is the plight of a middle reliever. But with the team’s rotation likely to be five-deep for the first time all season in the not-too-distant future, there’s every reason to believe he’ll be handed an inning in the home stretch. (Do baseball teams still hand relievers innings?)
There’s a one-two step to success in those frames — fastball, slider.
Rodriguez’s expected ERA is nearly a point lower than his actual 3.76 mark. Even if he decides to keep all four pitches for the final weeks of the campaign, I’d bet on him to be a sub-3-ERA pitcher.
But if he opts to keep it simple, an even better number is possible.
Blake Snell
Is this cheating? This feels like cheating.
Nevertheless…
It doesn’t take a comprehensive understanding of pitching mechanics to know that Snell is back.
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Snell taking a perfect game into the seventh inning of the first-half finale told us everything we needed to know. My goodness was he nasty.
There will still be some tough games from Snell in the final weeks — he does enjoy a good walk or five — but when he locates his fastball, everything falls into place and he’s almost unhittable.
And when that’s the case, the entire rotation falls into place.
With a resurgent Snell and Logan Webb, the Giants have an elite 1-2, lefty-righty combo. Add in Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb (one hopes, at least) and you have a really solid middle-of-the-rotation.
After that, the Giants can mix and match with Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, Jordan Hicks, and Keaton Winn.
Even if you have those four pitchers fighting for two spots in the rotation (can the Giants really trust Cobb?), San Francisco is in a great position for the home stretch.
What a change that would be for a team that was struggling to find two starters not long ago.
