Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the NBA offseason and beyond.
The NBA schedule release day is nothing like that of the NFL, and thank goodness for that.
When NFL schedules come out, sickos pore over the games, predicting wins and losses based on pure conjecture. It’s fan fiction. There’s no real way to know what the 49ers or the Seahawks will look like in Week 11. But before the actual games start, there’s nothing better to do.
With an 82-game NBA schedule, it’s harder to print out a schedule and mark over each date with a W or L. But thanks to the analytics movement, there are some inherently valuable factors to consider.
The biggest variable is rest. It may not have an impact on injury prevention, but it’s hard to imagine rest — or lack thereof — not impacting performance at all.
For the Warriors, an older team, rest would seem to be even more important. And there’s a lot to like in Golden State’s schedule within that lens.
According to NBA resource Positive Residual, the Warriors are scheduled to play 10 games at a rest disadvantage. That’s about league average, with the poles being the Bucks (13 rest disadvantaged games) and the Pelicans (six).
Where the Warriors pick up some schedule wins is with games in which they enter with more rest than their opponents. Golden State has 14 rest advantaged games, second-most in the league.
The Warriors play 36 nationally televised games, behind only the Lakers. A new rule this year stipulates that teams won’t play the day before or after “high-profile” national TV games — an overt effort to prevent stars from sitting out big games. That likely helps get them some extra rest.
And Golden State has 14 back-to-backs scheduled — again middle of the pack. So, all things being equal, the Warriors got a pretty fair draw.
If you really want to play game theory, the Warriors need to tread water early to have long-term success. If they can survive a tough early schedule, they should be able to make up ground in the second half.
Among 2024 playoff teams — which the Warriors are technically considered — Golden State has the fourth-toughest schedule in October and November. The Warriors have three matchups with the Pelicans, plus two with the Thunder and Clippers, and games against the Celtics, Cavaliers, Suns, Grizzlies and Magic before December. Thirteen of their first 19 games come against 2024 playoff teams or clubs expecting to contend this season. Every team in the NBA is a threat to win on any given night, but that’s a pretty brutal start.
Then the Warriors open December with a game against the Nuggets, a back-to-back with the Rockets and Timberwolves, then another bout with Minnesota. If the Warriors can get through that 23-game stretch at 12-11 or better, with their best players healthy and available, they should be in good shape to make a run.
But then again, who knows what the Warriors — or any other team — will look like in early December?
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Concerning Wiggins update
Andrew Wiggins’ business manager, Richard Clarke, shared in a video this week that Wiggins had to postpone his planned trip to China because of a family emergency. Players often make offseason trips to China to promote their shoe or apparel brands in the massive market.
Two years ago, Wiggins missed two months of the season for personal reasons. He left the team again briefly last year for the same unspecified personal reasons. His older brother, Nick, announced he cut his professional season short to return home to Canada last March for “serious personal issues back home.”
There’s not much to say other than to hope Wiggins and his family sort things out. The Warriors have supported Wiggins through difficult times, but for his sake and theirs, hopefully there’s no need to accommodate him further this season.
A beat writer’s schedule impressions
One of the biggest privileges of being a beat reporter is the opportunity to travel for away games — not with the team charter, but alongside it in economy class. Providing behind-the-scenes coverage on a daily basis is made possible by access on the road — and support from the good ol’ higher-ups at Media News Group (what can I say, I’m a company man).
The schedule release is a big day for traveling beat writers. It marks the start of planning and Trip Advisor season.
This being my first full season on the beat, the schedule is a road map to new cities around the country. And some old: Nov. 6 in Boston will be great to return home and sleep in my own bed with at my parents’ Beacon Hill apartment. Finding my passport for my first Toronto trip on Jan. 13 will be sweet. New York (March 4), Philadelphia (March 1) and Los Angeles will be great chances to catch up with college friends. Chicago is a personal favorite, but I’ll have to remember my ski jacket for the early February trip there.
It’s not all glamorous. There’s a lot of 5 a.m. flights in small airports, 12-hour turnarounds and forgettable hotels (shoutout to the Red Roof Inn in San Antonio). Getting from New Orleans to San Antonio for the back-to-back on Nov. 22-23 probably won’t be easy. Going from the snow in Salt Lake City to Crypto.com on a back-to-back in February will be tough to pack for, but maybe there will be some time to sneak away to Park City for a ski day beforehand.
The biggest highlight of the schedule for the beat writers: the last week in March. Off-days between games on the road are rare, but the Warriors play the Heat in Miami on March 25, with nothing scheduled the two days before or after. South Beach, here we come.
