Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
Army and Navy are ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 poll this week, the first time since 1960 that the two service academies have appeared simultaneously.
Both are undefeated and should be considered contenders for the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. But unlike every other team in the land, Army and Navy don’t conclude their seasons prior to the reveal of the CFP pairings on Dec. 8. Their rivalry game is one week later, on the same Saturday as the Heisman Trophy announcement.
That’s also one week after the American Athletic Conference championship game, raising the delicious possibility of the academies meeting twice in nine days.
However, the CFP selection committee won’t wait for the conclusion of the rivalry game. It would act on the result of the AAC championship on Dec. 6 in order to set the field and matchups in time for the opening round games two weeks later.
Because the odds of Army and Navy meeting for the AAC title with a playoff berth at stake are approximately as long as the odds of Vanderbilt beating Alabama, we thought it was worth a mention.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Texas (SEC). After battering Michigan and Oklahoma by a combined 50 points, the Longhorns should get their first true test of the season this weekend when the Dawgs come calling.
No. 2 Oregon (Big Ten). The conference schedule-makers did Oregon a huge favor by slotting Purdue into the post-Ohio State window. Even if the Ducks experience a massive letdown, they should escape West Lafayette with a victory.
No. 3 Clemson (ACC). We have seen enough from quarterback Cade Klubnik recently to give the Tigers an edge over Miami in our ACC championship projections.
No. 4 Iowa State (Big 12). ISU or BYU? BYU or ISU? We flipped the Big 12 championship coin, and it came up Matt Campbell. This time next week, who knows?
No. 12 Boise State (Group of Five). The competition for this spot starts in the Mountain West, with UNLV, and then moves rapidly eastward into the American and perhaps even Conference USA and the Sun Belt.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: Miami. We’ll know more about the Hurricanes — much more — after their trip to Louisville this weekend. The miracles have to end at some point, right?
Big 12: None. For the Big 12 and the ACC alike, the at-large situation depends partly on whether Notre Dame gobbles one of the few berths available after the Big Ten and SEC feed at the CFP trough.
Big Ten: Ohio State and Penn State. Of note in the Big Ten schedule (for tiebreaker purposes): Ohio State played Oregon and faces Penn State in early November, but the Ducks and Nittany Lions don’t meet.
SEC: Alabama, Georgia and LSU. If Georgia beats Texas, we might have to invoke the transitive property and declare Vanderbilt the presumptive SEC champ.
Independent: Notre Dame. Who figured matchups with Army and Navy would serve as major challenges for Notre Dame’s playoff drive?
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Pittsburgh and SMU. The surging Mustangs don’t play Clemson or Miami, which could add to the muddle at the top of the ACC.
Big 12: Brigham Young and Kansas State. Speaking of schedule misses that could be relevant: The Cougars don’t play Iowa State, but the Wildcats finish the season with ISU.
Big Ten: Illinois and Indiana. Felt like they should be included but we are far from convinced either will finish with fewer than three losses.
SEC: Missouri, Tennessee and Texas A&M. There are enough flawed teams in the SEC to clutter the outlook. It could put as many as five in the CFP or as few as three.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
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No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 LSU. Worth repeating: There is no mechanism in the seeding process to prevent opening-round rematches of regular-season games. Winner plays No. 1 Texas
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions and Irish have played twice since the former joined the Big Ten three decades ago, in 2006-07. The home team won each time by double digits. Winner plays No. 2 Oregon
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Miami. How the at-large candidates from the SEC and Big Ten are treated by the selection committee will determine nothing less than the long-term structure of the CFP. Winner plays No. 3 Clemson
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State. Obviously, this would be billed as the Autzen Stadium Loser Bowl. Winner plays No. 4 Iowa State
Looking ahead: Week 8
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Nebraska at Indiana (9 a.m. on Fox). The Hoosiers have built a first-rate record (6-0) against second-class competition. Are they legit? We should get clarity this week.
Alabama at Tennessee (12:30 p.m. on ABC): The loser will have zero margin for error in the CFP race. That would be particularly problematic for the Vols, who still play Georgia (on the road).
Georgia at Texas (4:30 p.m. on ABC). The Georgia-Alabama and Oregon-Ohio State games set a high bar for top-five showdowns.
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