Races for Congress in the Bay Area are typically hard-fought battles between Democrats that won’t tilt the battle for the U.S. House. But in the Central Valley and Southern California, a half-dozen districts are nationally watched toss-ups between Republicans and Democrats, and outside spending worth millions is pouring in to sway voters as the Nov. 5 election approaches.
Outcomes in these races “will determine the control of the House of Representatives,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist who co-founded The Lincoln Project, a political group that opposes former President Donald Trump and more broadly, Trumpism.
“It could be of paramount importance for the future direction of the country,” he said.
Republican incumbents are fighting for their political lives in razor-thin races for the five districts. All are rated toss-ups by The Cook Political Report, an influential elections forecaster. Democrats are also battling to keep an open seat from flipping and have a slight edge, according to the forecaster.
45th District
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is locked into an intense campaign with Democratic attorney Derek Tran for this Orange County district. So far, Steel has out-raised and out-spent her challenger. Through Oct. 16, Steel reported raising $9.2 million, including nearly $2 million in personal loans (Newsweek reported her net worth in 2021 at nearly $5 million), and spending $7 million. Tran had raised $5 million and spent $4.3 million.
Arms of the national political parties and Elon Musk’s Super PAC have flooded this district in advertisements, spending a combined $26 million, according to the nonpartisan campaign spending analyst Open Secrets. More outside spending is disclosed every day as Steel and Tran trade blows for the support of the district’s influential Vietnamese community.
Steel, who is Korean-American, has attacked Tran, who is Vietnamese-American, for not speaking the language well enough, and labeled him a communist sympathizer in mailers, the Los Angeles Times reported. Tran has accused her of “red-baiting” and criticized the Republican Party’s stance on immigration as “inhumane” and “impractical.”
47th District
The Orange County seat of outgoing Democratic Rep. Katie Porter now is up for grabs after her unsuccessful Senate run. Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min, who both have experience in the state Legislature, are battling for her seat in a race that’s drawn $16 million in spending outside of the candidates’ own campaigns.
Republican political action committee ads claim Min “is endorsed by a group that helps sex offenders.” The ad refers to Min’s endorsement by LGBTQ+ rights group Equality California. Min and Democrats have attacked Baugh over reproductive rights. Baugh, like Trump, said he supports the ability of states to enforce their own laws on abortion. Min supports national protection for abortion rights.
22nd District
In a rematch from 2022, Republican Rep. David Valadao — who became well-known as one of the few Republicans in Congress to vote for Trump’s impeachment in 2021— is running for reelection against former Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas in this Kern County rural district that includes Delano and much of Bakersfield.
According to Madrid, of the Lincoln Project, it’s the most Mexican-American district in the United States that’s represented by a Republican. Valadao prevailed by 3,000 votes two years ago.
The House Majority PAC, a national Democratic super PAC, has spent $4.3 million against Valadao so far, according to the nonpartisan campaign spending firm Open Secrets. The volley of digital ads paints Valadao as corrupt and responsible for the rising costs of housing and health care.
Its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has spent $5.9 million so far to air ads blaming Salas for high taxes and gas prices.
13th District
In another rematch, Republican Rep. John Duarte is running for reelection against Democratic former state Sen. Adam Gray in this Merced County district.
Duarte, a farmer, is running mainly on protecting agriculture and water infrastructure and says he’ll buck Republican Party leaders to solve the “humanitarian crisis” of immigration. He pitches himself as a moderate on abortion.
That’s put the incumbent representative in the crosshairs of Democratic strategists, who are banking on reproductive rights to energize voters. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a national party PAC, has aired ads claiming that Duarte is willing to side with hardline House Republicans on abortion.
Gray, meanwhile, is also stressing his track record protecting water rights in the Central Valley as a state lawmaker and says he is willing to vote independently and against party leaders in Washington, D.C. Republican spenders have blasted him in ads for supporting California’s transition to electric vehicles.
41st District
Rep. Ken Calvert has held his House seat longer than any other Republican in the state’s congressional delegation. He is also facing a repeat challenger: Democrat Will Rollins, who lost his bid in 2022 by 11,000 votes. This Inland Empire district includes Palm Springs as well as a red-leaning swath of Riverside County.
Rollins, who is gay, is banking on support from Palm Springs’ LGBTQ+ community and has attacked Calvert for his past opposition to legalizing same-sex marriage. In ads, he also says the national Republican Party has drifted from its traditional values.
Calvert voted against certifying the election on Jan. 6, 2021, when former President Donald Trump refused to concede to now-President Joe Biden. He told CalMatters he’ll certify the election this year regardless of the winner. His campaign focuses on pocketbook issues like the price of gas and groceries and says Rollins would raise taxes on small businesses.
District 27
Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is campaigning to hold his seat north of Los Angeles, which includes Santa Clarita and Palmdale. It’s a suburban district that’s relatively affluent, Madrid said, and another district in which Hispanic voters hold sway. Garcia was elected in 2020 and has managed to hold the purple seat after redistricting the following year.
He’s facing off against George Whitesides, a Democrat who helped lead NASA under President Barack Obama and was the first CEO of the private spaceflight firm Virgin Galactic. Whitesides says he’s running to grow the local economy and protect abortion rights.
Garcia stresses his roots in Mexico — his parents immigrated to the U.S. before he was born — and pledges to lower the cost of living in his district.
The two have squared off over abortion rights. Whitesides said he supports a national right to an abortion, while Garcia has pledged not to support a nationwide abortion ban.
