Is the California “exodus” over?
Ponder that the flow of Californians leaving for other states declined last year by the largest amount in the nation. My trusty spreadsheet’s review of new state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau shows 127,542 fewer California left in 2023 for elsewhere in the US compared to 2022.
Next came New York, down 64,054. Economic rival Texas had the 16th biggest dip, down 15,507.
Conversely, another California rival, Florida, was the state with the nation’s largest increase in departures – up 21,020 exits. Kansas was No. 2, up 8,155, then came New Mexico, up 6,474.
Why did California exits slow? Well, last year’s continued return to somewhat pre-pandemic life – socially and economically – likely cooled the urge to move. Plus, the previous rush to other popular states boosted the cost-of-living in those locales, lightly muting the Golden State’s hefty affordability challenges.
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Yes, California still had the most residents finding a new home in another state in 2023 – 690,127. Then came Florida at 510,925, New York at 481,544, and Texas at 478,570.
Yet that significant outflux of Californians seems like a return to some normalcy. It’s just 5% below the 658,700 yearly average since 2004 – noting the missing migration count in pandemic-plagued 2020.
Moving, as a trend, is out of favor. Last year, interstate relocations decreased by 8% nationally.
But in California, the departure decline was double the US pace at 16%. Only eight states had larger percentage dips. Texas exits were off 3%, the No. 17 drop among the states. Florida exits rose 4%, the sixth-biggest increase.
And please do not forget that as a share of all residents, California has long had one of the nation’s top “retention” rates.
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Contemplate that the state’s 2023 exits equals 1.79% of the Golden State population. Just five states had a smaller share of residents departing – Indiana at 1.78%, Wisconsin at 1.71%, Texas at 1.59%, Ohio at 1.58%, and No. 1 Michigan at 1.56%. And Florida was 18th best at 2.28%.
By the way, the worst place for retention was found in the government-dominated economy of District of Columbia, where 9.6% of residents moved to another state. No. 2 was Alaska at 4.94%.
In all, 2.28% of Americans switched states in 2023. So California was well below the nationwide state-switch frequency.
Nobody but me may say it, but, few Golden Staters leave – proportionally speaking.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
