As Vice President Kamala Harris licks her wounds from a historic defeat last week, a new poll says almost half of Californians would consider electing her governor in 2026 if she ran.
A week after the 2024 general election wrapped up, more than half of voters haven’t made up their minds about the likely candidates for 2026 yet, UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies poll found. The race is at a very early stage, said Eric Schickler, co-director of the institute.
“If Vice President Harris were to run, she would have an important advantage as she is by far the best known of the potential candidates,” Schickler said in a statement. “But for now, this is shaping up to be a wide-open race, with several Democrats likely to battle it out for the attention of Democratic voters.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom — whose own aspirations for the White House are well known — has two years left in his final term. The race to replace him is already a crowded field of nine Democrats and four Republicans who are expected to run.
The early front runners? Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and two Republicans, state Sen. Brian Dahle, who lost the 2022 governor’s race to Newsom, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, according to the poll.
In the survey, 13% ranked Porter, who lost a bid for U.S. Senate in the March primary election to fellow Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey, as their first or second choice for governor. Bianco followed at 12%, and Dahle at 11%.
Separately, pollsters asked likely voters if they would consider supporting Harris if the outgoing Vice President jumped into the gubernatorial race. One-third said they would be very likely to vote for Harris, and 13% would be somewhat likely to, the poll found.
Harris hasn’t said if she’ll run, and her aides say it’s too soon to speculate about her career options after her crushing defeat to former President Donald Trump.
“While it would be politically dicey to step back from vice president to running for governor, Vice President Harris would be a giant in this race,” said David McCuan, professor of political science at Sonoma State University.
Even if Harris didn’t run, she could wield influence as a “kingmaker or queenmaker” by backing and fundraising for one of the candidates, McCuan added.
The researchers surveyed more than 4,000 registered voters about the early state of the race for governor by email in late October. The poll was funded in part by the Los Angeles Times, and the margin of error was plus or minus two or three percentage points.
Nine Democrats and four Republicans have announced plans to run for governor or are seen as potential candidates by political insiders. The Democrats also include Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Attorney General Rob Bonta. The other Republicans are Lanhee Chen, a policy advisor and academic, and Steve Hilton, a political strategist who co-founded a think tank with Chen.
McCuan said the race is “wide open” so far, with lots of opportunity for candidates as they jockey for name recognition and support over the next two years.
Whoever takes the torch from Newsom will preside over a bastion of liberal resistance to Trump. However, McCuan said Republicans may be better positioned to take the governor’s mansion than in recent elections amid a rightward shift in California and nationally.
“The paint has not even dried on 2024, and 2026 matters in a huge way in California, and has a ripple effect across the country,” McCuan said.
