When Steve Kerr played 13 players in the first 14 minutes of Saturday night’s loss to the Suns, the faults of Golden State’s roster were never more evident.
The Warriors have a lot of solid, NBA-caliber players, but having a surplus of options isn’t always a good thing. It makes finding the right lineup combinations difficult, putting pressure on players to perform in limited minutes in the process.
Moses Moody, for instance, played only two minutes in the loss, hardly any time to prove himself worthy of playing time. He’d recently scored 15 points in the first half against Brooklyn, only to play four minutes the rest of the game.
Until the Warriors make roster changes, Kerr and the coaching staff will continue to search for five-man configurations that optimize what the Warriors can do. The straits certainly aren’t dire for Golden State (12-7) at this point, but changes to their 12- or 13-man rotation are coming because of their current four-game losing streak entering Tuesday’s NBA Cup matchup with Denver.
Kerr and the coaching staff has studied statistics and game tape over the past two days, and although Draymond Green’s likely absence against the Nuggets will pause major changes, Kerr said he’ll have conversations with certain players about their roles before Tuesday’s game in Denver.
“What we’re trying to find is combinations that click,” Kerr said. “We have a lot of really good individual pieces on this team. The tricky part is the puzzle itself. Certain combinations are really good together, others aren’t as good. When you’re talking about a deep team with a lot of guys who can play, a lot of different skill sets, that leaves a lot of different possible lineup combos.”
Green, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins will get their standard 30-or-so minutes. So will Brandin Podziemski, whose playmaking, connecting skills, off-ball defense and ballhandling make him productive in a variety of situations despite his slow start.
Beyond them, it’s up in the air. Here are some of the players at the crux of Kerr’s decision-making calculus, with key factors determining how much — and with whom — they play.
Jonathan Kuminga
The Warriors have played Kuminga less than 20 minutes seven times this year, and over 25 minutes on eight occasions. Despite being either the second- or third-best scorer on the team, his minutes have vastly fluctuated.
Kuminga began his fourth season at small forward in a jumbo starting five. But Kerr, a skeptic of Kuminga’s viability at the position, quickly pulled the plug and moved Kuminga to a bench role.
Kuminga played 96% of his minutes last season at power forward, and his position split is trending in that direction again.
Kerr said he wants to try to get Kuminga into lineups with Curry and Green more often. But everyone’s better while playing next to Curry and Green.
Because the team views Kuminga as a power forward, he can’t play in lineups alongside two bigs — their preferred defensive frontcourt. And if Kuminga is a full-time four, that trickles down to several other pieces on the roster…
Kyle Anderson
One of three veteran acquisitions from this offseason, Anderson brings a lot of what the Warriors want: versatile defense, smart decision-making and the ability to run the offense in spurts.
But Anderson’s lack of outside shot certainly costs him opportunities.
Anderson played just seven minutes in Golden State’s loss to Phoenix, a possible foreshadowing of his future role. He and Kerr discussed the situation after that game, Anderson said, which meant a lot to the veteran who has been on teams in which the head coach is less communicative.
The Warriors have prioritized defense, and Anderson fits that perfectly. But like Kuminga, his best position is power forward, and playing him with two bigs is untenable spacing-wise. Everything’s a tradeoff, and with the Warriors’ offense struggling, giving Anderson’s minutes to Kuminga could be a move the coaching staff examines.
Gary Payton II
A role player in every sense of the term, Payton will almost always play between six and 15 minutes. Which end of that spectrum is often determined by matchup, but also by the Warriors’ redundancies.
Similar to Anderson and Kuminga, Payton’s best position on offense is essentially power forward. As a screener, diver and dunker spot-roamer, Payton is perennially one of the best fits next to Curry.
What makes Payton different is his point-of-attack defense. Without De’Anthony Melton, who’s out for the season with an ACL sprain, Payton and Wiggins are by far the team’s two best perimeter defenders.
That particular skill, and the roster’s scarcity of it, will likely prevent Payton from DNP land. But finding pockets of a game to deploy him is going to be tricky.
Trayce Jackson-Davis and Kevon Looney
With the Warriors wanting to limit Draymond Green’s minutes as the center in most matchups, Kerr has committed to playing two bigs for most of the game. It’s the foundation of their best defensive units, and Golden State still ranks tied for fourth in defensive rating despite the losing skid.
Jackson-Davis has started every game but one next to Green, leaving Looney as the backup center. But Jackson-Davis’ struggles finishing around the rim — along with Looney’s resurgence — have sliced his minutes recently, including a four-minute night last week against Oklahoma City.
Looney, who ranks in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and is a better team defender than Jackson-Davis, started the second half against the Suns.
Golden State’s commitment to the two-big look should keep both Looney and Jackson-Davis in the mix. But it’s quite possible that Looney usurps Jackson-Davis in the starting five.
Moses Moody
His career has been defined by rotational purgatory, and there’s no end in sight. But Moody should benefit from the aforementioned dedication to playing two bigs.
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When two of Green, Jackson-Davis and Looney are on the floor together, the Warriors need to optimize their shooting around them.
At a career-best 38.8% from behind the arc, Moody remains one of the select Warriors who can consistently hit outside shots. He, Curry, Wiggins, Buddy Hield and Lindy Waters III are their best 3-point shooters.
When the Warriors play two bigs, they probably need at least Curry or Hield on the floor. The last two spots then become up for grabs.
Though he has flashed improved finishing around the rim, particularly on baseline drives, Moody is still limited as a connector. Certain matchups, like against quicker perimeter players, are also tough for him defensively.
His flaws — and, ironically, his professionalism — have often pushed him to the rotation’s boundaries. A master of no trades who stays ready to contribute whenever called upon, it feels like spot minutes are Moody’s immediate destiny.
