It took five editions of the College Football Playoff rankings reveal, but the selection committee finally changed its approach — to the delight of the SEC and the frustration of the ACC.
Oregon remained atop the rankings, followed by Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame.
The intrigue Tuesday evening came in the double digits, where Alabama climbed two spots, to No. 11, and Miami dropped six places, to No. 12 — meaning the Crimson Tide would make the CFP field, and the Hurricanes would not, if form holds through championship weekend.
(The CFP seeds and matchups will be announced Sunday at 9 a.m. on ESPN, followed several hours later by the pairing for the non-playoff bowls.)
Committee chair Warde Manuel explained that Alabama’s rise was based on its collection of quality wins — a justification that makes perfect sense, except the committee had not prioritized quality wins in previous weeks.
Instead, it gave substantial weight to win-loss record and how teams looked regardless of the competition. Strength-of-schedule was devalued as a result.
But on Tuesday, Manuel appeared on the ESPN broadcast and cited Alabama’s three wins over ranked opponents, compared to zero for Miami.
Later, on a media teleconference, he expounded:
“It came down to a difference in their body of work as we evaluated Alabama and Miami, not just wins, not just losses but the totality of the season and how those teams performed.”
Oh, how the tune has changed — just in time for the SEC to send a fourth team into the field.
Manuel later revealed that the committee won’t alter its evaluation of teams that are not playing in conference championships this weekend.
“We know who has won games against teams that are in these championships,” he said, “and we’ve already taken that into account this week as we evaluated them.”
That seemingly suggests none of the at-large candidates ranked below the Crimson Tide, which would be the last team in the field, can overtake Alabama.
In other words: Bad news for Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Other takeaways:
— Boise State moved up one spot, to No. 10, and seemingly will receive an opening-round bye if the Broncos defeat UNLV in the Mountain West championship game.
— That bye will come at the expense of either the Big 12 or the ACC:
If eighth-ranked SMU wins the ACC title, the Mustangs will claim a bye and the Big 12 champion (No. 15 Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State) will play a road game in the opening round.
If SMU loses to No. 17 Clemson, the fate of the final bye would hinge on the committee’s preference for the Tigers or the Big 12 winner.
— Based on the latest rankings, the following projected conference champions teams would have byes: Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.
And based on the rankings, the following at-large teams would host opening-round games: Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia and Ohio State.
— If form holds (and it probably won’t):
Big Ten champ Oregon would face the Tennessee-Ohio State winner in the quarterfinals.
Big 12 champ Arizona State would open on the road against Penn State.
Mountain West champ Boise State would face the Penn State-ASU winner in the quarterfinals.
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