The western third of the college football world, so often excluded from the four-team College Football Playoff, will have three representatives in the inaugural 12-team version after Boise State and Arizona State secured automatic bids Friday night and Saturday morning, respectively.
The Broncos (12-1) locked up their spot with a victory over UNLV in the Mountain West championship, and the Sun Devils (11-2) did the same with a dominating performance against Iowa State in the Big 12 championship.
The region’s third CFP participant, top-ranked Oregon (12-0), will make the field regardless of the outcome of the Big Ten title showdown with Penn State later today.
Across the entirety of the four-team playoff era (2014-23), only three western teams participated: Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2016 and 2023.
Had the four-team event remained in place this season, the Sun Devils would have been on the outside looking in the day they lost for a second time (Oct. 19). Boise State likely would have been excluded as a one-loss team from the Group of Five.
“In creating the format for the 12-team event,” former CFP executive director Bill Hancock told the Hotline on Saturday (via text message), “it was important to make sure college football thrived in every part of the country.
“It is working!”
Exactly where the Broncos and Sun Devils fit within the 12-team bracket, which will be revealed Sunday at 9 a.m. (Pacific) on ESPN, is unclear.
Both teams want one of the opening-round byes assigned to the four highest-ranked conference champions. The fifth conference champion isn’t as fortunate and must open the CFP on the road. (The opponent is expected to be the runner up from the Big Ten or SEC, or Notre Dame.)
Boise State was No. 10 in the rankings released Tuesday, five spots ahead of ASU.
Was the Sun Devils’ blowout victory over No. 16 Iowa State enough to catapult them over the Broncos, who beat No. 20 UNLV by two touchdowns?
“In no way should a Group of Five champion be ranked above our champion,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said earlier this week.
Or could both Boise State and Arizona State receive byes — at the expense of the ACC champion?
That seems unlikely if eighth-ranked SMU handles its business later today but entirely plausible if No. 17 Clemson topples the Mustangs.
Arizona State’s victory brings a degree of clarity to the Pac-12’s bowl selection process, which includes all the legacy schools this season despite the breakup of the conference.
With the Ducks and Sun Devils headed to the CFP, all other eligible teams will jump two spots from their natural position:
— The Alamo Bowl has the first pick and is expected to select Colorado, which tied for first place in the Big 12 but lost the tiebreaker.
The Buffaloes will face either Iowa State or Brigham Young, according to bowl officials.
Given the Cyclones’ woeful performance in the title game — and their expected plunge in the rankings — Brigham Young is a safe bet to oppose Colorado. (The teams did not meet during the regular season.)
— The Holiday Bowl has the second pick and will invite Washington State, which is protected by the Pac-12’s one-loss-down rule. It prevents bowl officials from bypassing one team for another if there is a two-game (or more) difference in losses.
The Cougars are 8-4 and must be selected ahead of the three teams that finished with 6-6 records (USC, Washington and Cal), according to the Pac-12.
Washington State’s opponent will be from the ACC.
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— Next up is the Las Vegas Bowl, which has its choice of the 6-6 teams and is expected to invite the Trojans, who began their season in Sin City with a dramatic victory over LSU.
USC’s opponent will come from the SEC, which could mean a showdown against coach Lincoln Riley’s former team, Oklahoma.
But we wonder if Mississippi, led by former USC coach Lane Kiffin, is more likely.
— The Sun Bowl has the fourth pick and is expected to choose Washington, which has not played in El Paso since 2002.
The Huskies will be matched against a team from the ACC.
— That leaves the LA Bowl to select Cal, the lone remaining eligible team among the Pac-12 legacy schools.
The selection makes sense in that the Bears have a large alumni base in Southern California and did not play a regular season game at USC or UCLA for the first time in eons.
Cal would face an opponent from the Mountain West.
The bowl pairings will become official Sunday afternoon, following the reveal of the CFP.
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