Clemson became the fifth and final conference champion to qualify for the College Football Playoff with a dramatic victory over SMU in the ACC championship on Saturday night that placed the selection committee in the most difficult position possible: Whether to pick SMU or Alabama for the final at-large spot.
The stakes are enormous, both for the 2024 CFP field and the future of the event.
Clemson’s win — on a walk-off, 56-yard field goal — came moments after Oregon fended off Penn State for a 45-37 victory in the Big Ten title game that secured the No. 1 overall seed for the undefeated Ducks.
Oregon and Georgia, the SEC champion, are guaranteed opening round byes in the 12-team event, with the Ducks assigned to the Rose Bowl and the Bulldogs to the Sugar Bowl.
Three teams are in contention for the final two byes: Clemson, Boise State, which won the Mountain West, and Arizona State, which claimed the Big 12 title.
One of them will be the odd-team-out and open the playoffs on the road in two weeks, likely against Texas, Penn State or Notre Dame.
But that issue is secondary — at least in its potential to ignite controversy — to the selection of Alabama or SMU for the final at-large berth.
The Mustangs (11-2) were No. 8 in the committee’s rankings released earlier this week, while the Crimson Tide (9-3) was No. 11.
Would the committee punish SMU for losing the ACC championship game on a last-second field goal by Clemson?
Or would it exclude Alabama, which played a vastly stronger schedule than SMU and has more quality wins? (The Crimson Tide beat Georgia, which pummeled Clemson, which beat SMU.)
If the committee picks SMU for the final spot, the mighty SEC would be left with just three CFP bids.
Commissioner Greg Sankey said in October that the selection process had to “go incredibly well.” Some took Sankey’s comment as a not-so-veiled threat: If the SEC and Big Ten didn’t get what they wanted (in terms of bids and seeds), the sport’s most powerful conferences would force a change in the format starting with the 2026 season.
That change could result in more automatic bids for the SEC and Big Ten at the expense of access for the other FBS conferences.
Beyond the SMU-Alabama debate, the 12-team field is set. Only the seeds must be resolved before the announcement on Sunday (9 a.m. on ESPN).
It should look something like this:
— No. 1 to No. 4 seeds (opening-round byes): Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State
— No. 5 to No. 8 seeds (opening round home games): Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State/Tennessee
— No. 9 to No. 12 seeds (opening round road games): Ohio State/Tennessee, Indiana, Clemson and Alabama/SMU
Arizona State’s victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 championship also brings a degree of clarity to the Pac-12’s bowl selection process, which includes all the legacy schools this season despite the breakup of the conference.
With the Ducks and Sun Devils headed to the CFP, all other eligible teams will jump two spots from their natural position:
— The Alamo Bowl has the first pick and is expected to select Colorado, which tied for first place in the Big 12 but lost the tiebreaker.
The Buffaloes will face either Iowa State or Brigham Young, according to bowl officials.
Given the Cyclones’ woeful performance in the title game — and their expected plunge in the rankings — Brigham Young is a safe bet to oppose Colorado. (The teams did not meet during the regular season.)
— The Holiday Bowl has the second pick and will invite Washington State, which is protected by the Pac-12’s one-loss-down rule. It prevents bowl officials from bypassing one team for another if there is a two-game (or more) difference in losses.
The Cougars are 8-4 and must be selected ahead of the three teams that finished with 6-6 records (USC, Washington and Cal), according to the Pac-12.
Washington State’s opponent will be from the ACC.
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— Next up is the Las Vegas Bowl, which has its choice of the 6-6 teams and is expected to invite the Trojans, who began their season in Sin City with a dramatic victory over LSU.
USC’s opponent will come from the SEC, which could mean a showdown against coach Lincoln Riley’s former team, Oklahoma.
But we wonder if Mississippi, led by former USC coach Lane Kiffin, is more likely.
— The Sun Bowl has the fourth pick and is expected to choose Washington, which has not played in El Paso since 2002.
The Huskies will be matched against a team from the ACC.
— That leaves the LA Bowl to select Cal, the lone remaining eligible team among the Pac-12 legacy schools.
The selection makes sense in that the Bears have a large alumni base in Southern California and did not play a regular season game at USC or UCLA for the first time in eons.
Cal would face an opponent from the Mountain West.
The bowl pairings will become official Sunday afternoon, following the reveal of the CFP.
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