The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
How are the cross-country traveling teams doing in basketball so far? — @CelestialMosh
About how you would expect: poorly.
Is this due to the travel, the matchups or a talent deficit? Probably all of it. And context is essential.
First, here are the numbers (conference games only).
— The new ACC teams (Cal and Stanford) are 0-6 combined when crossing multiple time zones, with both scheduled to play on the East Coast on Saturday.
— The new Big Ten teams (UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington) are 3-6 when playing in the Central and Eastern Time Zones.
— In our view, the point spread is a better gauge of performance because it accounts for disparities in talent and expectations. In that regard, the six West Coast teams are 4-11 when playing on the other side of the country (based on odds published by vegasinsider.com).
Now, let’s dive into the context.
The sample size is small — so small, in fact, that we would have delayed addressing cross-country performance for the six schools until February if not for relevant comments made this week by UCLA coach Mick Cronin to CBS Sports about the travel.
The Bruins recently completed a stretch in which they played Nebraska on the road, then Michigan at home, then headed to Maryland and Rutgers — all in 10 days.
They lost all four games.
We’re hesitant to ascribe the results entirely to travel demands, although that undoubtedly played a significant role.
Cronin said as much.
“Whoever did it, I get it. I mean, it’s probably virtually impossible to make the schedule, but I just know it hasn’t been good for us,” he told CBS. “Michigan was in L.A. three days before we were.”
That final line is the reason we feel compelled to address this issue now, despite the small sample size: For the West Coast teams, the travel toll isn’t limited to the road games; it can also affect performance in home games.
The Bruins played in Lincoln on a Saturday, then returned home to face Michigan on the following Tuesday. The Wolverines had been in L.A. for days because of a prior game at USC.
That dynamic will repeat for Washington early next month. The Huskies visit Minnesota on a Saturday, then come home to play Nebraska the following Wednesday. But the Cornhuskers will have been in the Pacific Northwest for five days because of a prior game at Oregon.
USC faces the same situation. The Trojans visit Rutgers on a Sunday, then come home to face Ohio State the following Wednesday. The Buckeyes will have been in L.A. for almost a week.
Those are just three examples of tricky travel potentially impacting West Coast teams on the road and at home.
Here’s another: Washington plays in the Eastern or Central Time Zone on three of the four Saturdays in February.
To be clear, the brutal travel demands are unavoidable with the Big Ten’s membership makeup, 20 conference games and only four West Coast teams.
Cronin was spot on when he noted, “It’s probably virtually impossible to make the schedule.”
Clearly, the logistics would have been substantially more manageable for everyone in the Big Ten, especially the athletes, if Stanford and Cal had joined the conference, as well. But Fox runs the show, and Fox wasn’t interested.
The dynamics are no different in the ACC, where — to cite just one example — Cal visits SMU for a mid-week game, then comes home to play Syracuse, which will have been in the Bay Area for almost a week.
(The Big 12 travel isn’t nearly as demanding for the Four Corners schools, which fit reasonably well geographically in their new home.)
We’ll monitor the situation throughout the season in both the ACC and Big Ten, then reassess with a weighty sample size.
And again, let’s be careful not to attribute the results entirely to travel.
There are myriad factors involved in the outcome of each competition. One of those is talent: Some teams will thrive regardless of date or location, just as Oregon football did on its eastern swings. (The UCLA and USC women’s basketball teams, for instance, are dominating at home and on the road.)
Lastly, we should note that March matters most in college basketball. And in addition to the regular-season travel, all the West Coast teams have conference tournaments on the other side of the country, with the ACC’s event in Charlotte and the Big Ten’s version in Indianapolis.
Will most of schlepping leave them exhausted for the tournaments?
Or will they be steeled and ready for anything?
There is no requirement that half your games need to be on the road or at a neutral site. SEC teams have been playing seven home games for years, and the Big Ten and ACC have followed suit. Why aren’t the Big 12 schools scheduling seven or more home games? — Steve T
The Hotline loves plunging into the weeds of football scheduling, which is more difficult than fans realize and absolutely vital to competitive and financial success.
First, let’s make quick mention of the Big 12 math.
With nine conference games, there are two models available for schools to play seven home games:
— Schedule three non-conference home games for seasons in which you only play four league games at home.
— Schedule two non-conference home games when you play five league games at home.
Key point: Non-conference games are scheduled years in advance, and we mean years. Arizona, for instance, reportedly has three games scheduled for the 2033 season (Alabama, Northern Arizona and Wyoming).
Contracts can be broken, usually for a price. But most non-conference games were set before Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah agreed (in 2023) to join the conference, and some were scheduled before BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston were invited to the Big 12 in the summer of 2021.
Also locked in: The location of rivalry games.
The Arizona schools had a rotation established — Tempe in odd years, Tucson in even — when they were in the Pac-12 and didn’t want to change upon joining the Big 12.
The same goes for Kansas and Kansas State, which play in Lawrence in odd years and Manhattan in even.
The conference office needed to preserve those rotations while transitioning from a 10- to 16-team conference in a manner of just two years. That had a cascading effect on the Big 12’s four-year schedule matrix and limited flexibility.
Also, it’s worth noting that five teams did, in fact, play seven home games this season: Arizona, Iowa State, UCF, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
Lastly, we should point out the cost factor. Group of Five teams charge well in excess of $1 million to visit Power Four stadiums, and FCS teams require roughly $500,000 per game.
So for a Big 12 team playing just four conference home games, the cost to buy three home dates in a given year (one against the FCS, two against the Group of Five) could approach $3.5 million.
The long-haul outlook is potentially problematic, as well.
If the SEC and Big Ten schedule more games against each other — the TV networks will pay for marquee matchups — many of those 34 teams will have fewer openings available for matchups against the ACC and Big 12.
That, in turn, would force the ACC and Big 12 to become more reliant on Group of Five and FCS opponents, increasing demand and sending prices higher.
Unless, of course, the ACC and Big 12 form a scheduling alliance of their own.
Can you explain how the House lawsuit settlement will work. Is it equal shares for all players on the roster, or only sets a required minimum? — RockDawg3
Nothing is definite, yet. If Judge Claudia Wilken approves the House vs NCAA settlement in April, then revenue-sharing will begin, officially, this summer.
It’s supposed to feature a $20.5 million permissive cap, meaning schools don’t have to share the maximum. (Those that don’t max out could get hit in recruiting.)
Of that total, roughly $15 million will be allocated to football at the Power Four level, with the subsequent division of dollars determined by each school.
Some might put more into their receivers. Others might favor the defensive line. Everyone will pay as much as they feel is needed to land and retain the best quarterback option.
All that said, the settlement could fall apart entirely, or the planned allocation of money could be changed based on court rulings.
Because whatever happens this spring, there will be lawsuits challenging the outcome.
At the end of the school year, will Pac-12 Enterprises share the money it made with Oregon State and Washington State? If yes, what’s the estimated amount? — @jimmy0726
Each year, the Pac-12 deposits the checks it collects from media rights deals, the College Football Playoff and the NCAA Tournament, pays the bills, then distributes what remains to the campuses.
In theory, distributions from the 2024-25 competition year could include profits from the Pac-12 Enterprises, the conference’s production unit that handled football broadcasts for The CW and other events, including a Golden State Warriors exhibition game.
However, the media deal with The CW was about exposure, not revenue. Those broadcasts likely generated $1 million or so per game.
Also, Pac-12 Enterprises has to cover operating costs and rent in the East Bay city of San Ramon.
The financial data won’t be available to the public until next year, but it’s entirely possible that the entity is barely breaking even at this point or, perhaps, not even profitable. That could change in years to come, however.
In other words: Yes, Pac-12 Enterprises could spin off cash to WSU and OSU this spring, but it’s unlikely to have a material impact on budgets until the conference’s next chapter begins in 2026.
Assuming Arizona State tailback Cam Skattebo goes to the NFL, where he might end up (roughly) in the draft order? — @Cargoman0363
Skattebo is out of eligibility. He spent two years at both Sacramento State and Arizona State and entered school in 2021, so he cannot take advantage of the COVID-year exemption.
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His headwinds are fairly obvious: Running backs don’t carry the same draft value as perimeter players (receivers, cornerbacks, edge rushers and offensive tackles); and he probably won’t post a top-tier 40-yard dash time.
However, his attributes are numerous. Skattebo is tough, understands how to set up blocks, breaks tackles and has good hands — all of which means he potentially could play on third down and on special teams, thereby increasing his versatility and value.
Without knowing his 40 time, our hunch is that Skattebo gets selected in the fourth round, with the distinct possibility that one team likes him enough to spend a third rounder.
How is former Washington State coach Nick Rolovich going to do at Cal? — @Kemosahbeh
If you missed the news, the Bears hired Rolovich last month as a senior offensive assistant. He’ll work with new coordinator Bryan Harsin and first-year quarterback Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele to (potentially) upgrade Cal’s production.
Rolovich is a sharp offensive mind. In our view, two things are equally true: He deserved to get fired by WSU in the fall of 2021 for refusing the state-mandated vaccine; and he deserves another opportunity to coach in the FBS.
And if this gig leads to a head coaching position down the road, good for him.
Do we have too many conferences? — @BakerMeow
We don’t have too many. In fact, the opposite is true: There aren’t enough conferences, especially for basketball and the Olympic sports.
You could make the case that football is best when played regionally, as well — not with the structure it had before this latest round of realignment but back in the 1990s, when the Big East was a thriving football league, as was the Southwest Conference and the Big 8 and the WAC.
(But consolidation has offered the path to TV cash, and the schools are addicted to the TV cash.)
The dissolution of rivalries and increased travel, with the physical demands on athletes and the cost to the schools, are bad for sports like soccer and field hockey. It’s even bad for men’s and women’s basketball.
We view the current situation in college sports as akin to Prohibition. The industry will eventually recalibrate, and we’ll look back on the era and wonder what the heck everyone was thinking.
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