The crack of a bat. The pop of a glove. The six-week hyperfixation on a small sample of performances that may have no bearing on future performance.
Spring training, indeed, is almost here.
The San Francisco Giants enter the first year of the Buster Posey era having finished with a record of .500 or worse in the last three seasons. Posey’s first offseason saw the Giants add Willy Adames and Justin Verlander and lose Blake Snell, Michael Conforto and Taylor Rogers, but the bulk of last year’s roster remains intact — a roster that finished in fourth place.
San Francisco won’t have any major positional battles going into camp, but that doesn’t mean the next month-and-a-half won’t be without intrigue. Here’s what to watch for in Scottsdale:
How does Marco Luciano look in the outfield?
San Francisco Giants’ Marco Luciano (37) throws the ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning at Oracle Park in San Francisco, Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024. (Shae Hammond/Bay Area News Group)
To borrow a sentiment from Dinah Washington, what a difference a year makes.
This time last year, Luciano was the heir apparent to Brandon Crawford, who announced his retirement in November. After years of being one of the organization’s top prospects, Luciano was finally going to get his opportunity to be San Francisco’s starting shortstop.
Without fully diving into the details (of which there are many), that fate never materialized.
Luciano lost the starting job to Nick Ahmed, a late signing during spring training, and never got extended run at the major-league level. When he did play, he was a net negative. At the plate, he had a .562 OPS. On defense, he committed five errors in just 60 innings at shortstop and was worth -3 defensive runs saved.
Luciano’s future with the Giants no longer resides at shortstop but in the outfield. He won’t have a shot at a starting role — Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski have the three spots locked up — but a spot on the bench isn’t out of the question. Speaking of …
Who fills out the bench?
San Francisco Giants’ Jerar Encarnacion (59) reacts towards the dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the 10th inning of their MLB game at the Coliseum in Oakland, Calif., on Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024. The San Francisco Giants defeated the Oakland Athletics 4-2 in 10 innings. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)
On the subject of Luciano, he’ll be one of a select group competing for the four spots on San Francisco’s bench.
Luciano, Luis Matos and Grant McCray are set to compete for the fourth outfielder role. Jerar Encarnacion is an outfielder as well but falls into his own lane as a bat-first type who happens to play corner outfielder and first base. None of the Giants’ 20 non-roster invitees are outfielders, which means San Francisco is effectively putting the fates of Luciano, Matos and McCray in their own hands.
The competition for backup infielder will comprise Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt, David Villar and Osleivis Basabe, who the Giants recently acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays for cash considerations. Basabe made his major-league debut in 2023 (.587 OPS, 31 games) but didn’t play in the majors last season.
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Tom Murphy is the favorite to be Patrick Bailey’s backup, but there will be competition for the spot. Blake Sabol is no longer in the mix after being traded to the Boston Red Sox, but Sam Huff and Max Stassi (non-roster invitee) will be among the catchers who will be in camp.
How are Verlander’s underlying metrics?
Justin Verlander has long been at a point in his career where his spring training stats do not matter. Regardless of his ERA in Arizona, he will be in San Francisco’s starting rotation. That said, his starts will still be worth examining.
Verlander is fresh off the worst season of his career, one where his underlying metrics were noticeably down. His fastball velocity was the lowest since 2014, while his fastball spin rate was the lowest of the pitch-tracking era (since 2015).
The future Hall of Famer struggled last season due in part to neck and shoulder issues, and Verlander told reporters upon signing that he altered his offseason routine to ensure his shoulder stays healthy. Will a healthy Verlander look better in the spring? Additionally, will Verlander tweak his pitch usage, maybe become less reliant on his fastball and curveball and embrace his slider and changeup?
The Giants will play only 14 games in stadiums that provide Statcast data, according to Thomas Nestico, meaning we won’t have a complete picture of Verlander’s stuff until the regular season begins.
Does Harrison exhibit increased velocity?
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Kyle Harrison (45) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Oracle Park in San Francisco, Calif., on Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2024. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group)
On the topic of velocity, it will be worth monitoring Harrison’s four-seam fastball velocity throughout camp.
When Harrison broke on the scene in 2023, the left-hander had an average fastball velocity of 93.6 mph over seven starts. In his first full season, by contrast, Harrison was down to 92.5 mph over 24 starts, a product of throwing the most innings in his professional career.
To expand on the point, in 2023, Harrison threw 53 pitches that were at least 95 mph and 13 pitches that were at least 96 mph. In 2024? Harrison threw 24 pitches that were at least 95 mph and didn’t top 96 mph a single time.
Harrison evolved during his rookie year by altering his pitch mix as the season went along (fewer fastballs, more secondaries), but an extra tick on his fastball would be invaluable to his effectiveness as a starter.
Does a second lefty emerge in the bullpen?
San Francisco Giants reliever Erik Miller reacts after striking out the Washington Nationals’ Joey Gallo to preserve a 7-1 victory, Wednesday, April 10, 2024, at Oracle Park in San Francisco, Calif. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)
The Giants made a mildly shocking move last month, trading left-handed Taylor Rogers and cash to the Cincinnati Reds for a minor-league reliever — and breaking up the Rogers twins in the process. The move leaves Erik Miller as the team’s only left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster.
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Last season, the Giants used four left-handed relievers: Rogers, Miller, Raymond Burgos and … Mike Yastrzemski. Needless to say, San Francisco is thin on lefties out of the pen.
San Francisco will have eight left-handed pitchers in camp as non-roster invitees: Burgos, Miguel Del Pozo, Antonio Jimenez, Joey Lucchesi, Helcris Olivarez, Enny Romero, Ethan Small and Carson Whisenhunt.
Of that group, Lucchesi, a Newark native, has the most major-league experience, owning a career 4.10 ERA over 394 2/3 major-league innings. Lucchesi has been a starter for most of his career but made 10 relief appearances for the New York Mets’ Triple-A affiliate last season, posting a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 innings as a reliever.
