Nazmul Ahasan
(Bloomberg) — US consumer sentiment fell to a more than two-year low and long-term inflation expectations jumped by the most since 1993, illustrating growing apprehension about the economic impact from tariffs.
The preliminary March sentiment index dropped to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022, from 64.7 a month earlier, according to University of Michigan data issued Friday. The figure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next five to 10 years, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month and the highest in more than three decades. They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4.9% over the next year, up from 4.3% and the highest since 2022.
As the scope of President Donald Trump’s tariffs policy broadens, consumers across the political spectrum have become increasingly concerned that the extra duties will eventually lead to higher costs. While inflation cooled last month, any sustained pickup in price pressures risks causing households to limit discretionary purchases.
Consumers’ expectations of their finances dropped to the lowest level on record, the survey showed. Respondents said there was a 48.7% chance that the stock market will increase in the coming year, the lowest probability since May 2023.
The S&P 500 climbed after a rocky week for investors while the dollar declined.
“Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
Forty-eight percent of survey respondents spontaneously mentioned tariffs during interviews with the university.
“Critically, these consumers generally expect tariffs to generate substantial upward pressure for inflation in the future,” Hsu said.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“The University of Michigan’s early-March reading of consumer sentiment reflects uncertainty and anxiety that goes well beyond the potential inflationary impact of tariffs. Consumers increasingly are worried their job and income prospects as well.”
— Eliza Winger, economist
To read the full note, click here
The administration’s goal is to correct trade imbalances, spark investment in the US and spur domestic output of critical goods and materials. However, consumers see a large amount of uncertainty in the economy, government policy and financial markets.
“The pullback in confidence is becoming a real threat to consumer spending,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. “Downside risks to the economic outlook have increased substantially over the last month. People who are afraid the economy is headed into a ditch won’t buy new cars or houses, go out to eat, or go on vacations.”
The survey showed the current conditions gauge fell to a six-month low of 63.5. The expectations index fell to the lowest level since July 2022.
A gauge of sentiment among Republicans declined nearly 3 points, while a measure for Democrats slid nearly 10 points. Among political independents, confidence dropped 5.4 points.
(Adds economists’ comments. A previous version corrected the change in long-term inflation expectations in third paragraph.)
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