Welcome to the first installment of a Hotline series looking ahead to the 2024 Big Ten race — a race with 18 teams, no divisions and two clear favorites.
We like Ohio State and Oregon.
So do the oddsmakers.
Projections published by FanDuel show the Buckeyes and Ducks as the only teams with double-digit win totals. Michigan and Penn State are close, with USC, Washington, Nebraska and Iowa constituting the third tier.
The Hotline examined rosters and schedules — now that the transfer window is closed, depth charts are easier to sketch — then matched our forecasts against the FanDuel totals.
To illustrate our confidence level for each pick, we allocated a hypothetical $2,500.
Please note: Win totals are based on 12 games played; conference championships and bowl games don’t count.
(Teams listed alphabetically)
Illinois
Total: 5.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $50
Comment: The combination of a difficult conference road schedule and a projected loss at home to Kansas in Week 2 will leave the Illini with an extraordinarily narrow path to six wins (and a bowl berth) in what stands as a crucial fourth season under Bret Bielema.
Indiana
Total: 5.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $100
Comment: Given the paucity of talent, the Hoosiers will be fortunate to win four games, much less five — much less six. Frankly, we’re surprised FanDuel set the total this high.
Iowa
Total: 7.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: Iowa’s fate will be set before September closes, thanks to the presence of two tipping-point matchups in the win total calculation. If the Hawkeyes handle Iowa State at home (Sept. 7) and Minnesota on the road (Sept. 21) — as we expect — they should zoom past 7.5 wins.
Maryland
Total: 6.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $75
Comment: It’s easy to identify six wins on Maryland’s schedule; the first half of the season is loaded with second-rate opponents. But once mid-October arrives, the lineup turns daunting. Don’t be surprised if the Terps start 6-0 and finish 6-6.
Michigan
Total: 9.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $200
Comment: Our math for Michigan’s rebuilt roster and rookie coach Sherrone Moore is fairly simple and starts with the showdowns against Texas (home), Oregon (home) and Ohio State (road). The Wolverines must win one of the three and sweep their other nine to hit the Over. We don’t see it. In fact, the Hotline would have seriously considered taking the Under if oddsmakers had set the total at 8.5.
Michigan State
Total: 4.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $50
Comment: The forecast in East Lansing is fairly bleak and depends heavily on a young quarterback, Aiden Chiles, performing like a veteran. But the combination of a pillowy soft non-conference schedule (Florida Atlantic, Prairie View and Boston College) and home dates against projected Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana offers a path to five wins for Jonathan Smith.
Minnesota
Total: 4.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $75
Comment: Another instance of a team’s Over/Under fate seemingly being sealed in September. The Gophers open with North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada and Iowa at home. Win three of four, and they should surpass the total. Win two, and the path narrows considerably.
Nebraska
Total: 7.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: The Hotline is optimistic about Year 2 under Matt Rhule and has been since January. We view roadtrips to Ohio State, Iowa and USC as likely losses, but the other nine are either likely wins or tossups. That provides the Cornhuskers with just enough margin for error to exceed their total.
Northwestern
Total: 5.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $100
Comment: The pivotal game for David Braun and Co. comes Nov. 2, when the Wildcats head to Purdue. Win, and a bowl berth is likely. Lose, and the climb to six wins turns arduous.
Ohio State
Total: 10.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $200
Comment: The presumptive conference frontrunner is loaded on both sides of scrimmage and won’t lack for motivation after watching Michigan’s title run last season. Yes, there are trips to State College and Eugene, but the Buckeyes own Penn State — they have won seven in a row and 11 of the past 12 — and they can afford to lose to Oregon and still hit their number.
Oregon
Total: 10.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $50
Comment: The Ducks have compiled perhaps the most talented roster in school history and are the best bet to derail Ohio State, which visits Autzen Stadium on Oct. 12. But will Oregon perform consistently enough to win at least 11 with a schedule that includes the Buckeyes and Washington at home, plus November trips to Michigan and Wisconsin? We are ever-so-slightly skeptical.
Penn State
Total: 9.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: One of the easiest calls on the board. Why? Because the Nittany Lions open at West Virginia (9-4 last season). And because they play USC and Wisconsin on the road. And because they host Ohio State. You’d have to offer astronomical odds on the Over to convince us to wager a dime on Penn State finishing with 10 or more wins.
Related Articles
Big Ten football: The tiebreaker conundrum isn’t just about the conference championship matchup
Oregon preps for Big Ten with stout balance sheet, no campus support
Washington attempts to restructure stadium debt ahead of Big Ten move
UC regents expected to hit UCLA with maximum annual subsidy — err, “contribution” for Cal
Big Ten football projections: How West Coast teams stack up for 2024
Purdue
Total: 4.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $100
Comment: Another easy call given a schedule that includes two challenging non-conference matchups, Notre Dame (home) and Oregon State (road). If the Boilermakers lose both but beat Indiana State, they would need to win four conference games to surpass 4.5 wins. No chance. No chance whatsoever.
Rutgers
Total: None listed
Our call: N/A
Amount wagered: $0
Comment: The Scarlet Knights possess a middle-of-the-pack roster and a lower-level schedule: They don’t play Ohio State, Michigan or Oregon. With that in mind, we envision six or seven wins.
UCLA
Total: 5.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: For all the optimism that has accompanied DeShaun Foster’s initial months on the job, the reality is stark: The Bruins are without substantial high-end talent but face perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country. They have trips to LSU, Penn State, Washington and Nebraska while hosting Iowa, USC and Oregon. If they win six, Foster should be rewarded with a lifetime contract.
USC
Total: 7.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: If the nation’s toughest schedule isn’t located in Westwood, then it resides a few miles down the road. The Trojans also play LSU (in Las Vegas) and face Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska. The Big Ten’s media partners are undoubtedly delighted with USC’s loaded lineup. Anyone who takes the Under will be thrilled, as well.
Washington
Total: 7.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $150
Comment: We spent more time on Washington than any other team and ended with a slight lean to the Under because of basic math: The Huskies play Michigan at home and visit Oregon, Penn State and Iowa. If we pencil all four as losses, they would need to run the table against everyone else to hit the Over. Even if they manage one victory against that daunting quartet, the Huskies would need a 7-1 mark against everyone else. Either way, the Over requires a leap of faith we aren’t willing to make.
Wisconsin
Total: 6.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $100
Comment: At first glance, a schedule featuring Alabama, USC, Iowa, Penn State and Oregon would seem to conflict with the Over projection. But three of those games are at home and the USC matchup falls in a favorable spot for the Badgers: It’s the week after USC visits Michigan.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
